DOTP prices surge strongly (20260904-0910)

1. Market Focus This Week

1. Production: The average operating rate of domestic DOTP plants this week was 60.95%.

2. Cost: The average price of the main raw material, Shandong octanol, rose, and the average price of raw material PTA increased.

3. Profit: The average theoretical profit of sample DOTP enterprises this week was about 331 yuan/mt.

2. Market Analysis This Week

Table: Weekly Price Change Table for China's DOTP Industry Chain

Unit: yuan/mt

This week, domestic DOTP market prices rose strongly, with mainstream quotations in Zhejiang running within the range of 9,800–10,400 yuan/mt during the week.

This week, affected by continued tensions in the Middle East geopolitical situation, international crude oil prices surged, effectively lifting the entire chemical sector. Against this backdrop, cost-side support in the DOTP market was strong, and traders sharply raised quotations accordingly. Bullish sentiment in the market quickly heated up, and downstream buyers actively entered the market to purchase and replenish stocks, driving a periodic surge in transaction volume. At the same time, holders generally adopted volume-control and reluctant-selling strategies amid a bullish mindset, causing spot supply in the market to tighten and further intensifying the upward price trend. Although the trading atmosphere at some high-end price levels weakened somewhat in the second half of the week, overall DOTP market prices remained firm under strong support from crude oil and upstream raw material costs.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic DOTP plants declined, with an average operating rate of around 61%.

2. On Thursday this week, the Zhejiang DOTP market price was 10,350 yuan/mt ex-works, up 500 yuan/mt from last Thursday.

3. On Thursday this week, the price of DOTP's main raw material, octanol, rose by 450 yuan/mt from last Thursday, and the other raw material, PTA, rose by 400 yuan/mt from last Thursday.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cost side: Spot supply of the core raw material octanol is relatively tight, and prices are expected to consolidate at high levels next week. The other raw material, PTA, is expected to see incremental supply, but with many unstable factors in the Middle East, cost-side support remains; the PTA market is expected to maintain a stronger consolidation pattern. Overall, the DOTP cost side still has some favorable support. Be alert to market sentiment changes caused by a rapid reversal in crude oil prices.

Supply and demand side: Overall end-use demand performance is stable, with downstream players mainly making bargain-based, need-driven purchases. Although buyers are becoming more cautious about following high prices, producers currently have no inventory accumulation pressure, and traders are controlling sales volumes, which will also support low-end market prices.

Comprehensive forecast: Currently, positive factors dominate the DOTP market. Traders are supporting prices, and market prices are expected to run firm-to-strong; however, buyers are becoming more cautious about following high prices, which may limit the upside momentum of DOTP prices. In addition, the geopolitical situation remains uncertain. Going forward, focus on the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Strait, and beware of price fluctuations caused by a rapid shift in crude oil sentiment. Zhejiang prices are expected to run in the range of 10,300–10,600 yuan/mt next week.

For more weekly market analysis, please see Chempricehub's DOTP Weekly Report.