1. Highlights of the Month
Production: In August, the capacity utilization rate of aluminum fluoride plants was 37.4%, up 4.6 percentage points month-on-month. Supported mainly by downstream tender pricing at the beginning of the month, aluminum fluoride prices rose moderately, boosting producers’ operating sentiment. With earlier inventories gradually digested, most manufacturers moderately raised their plant operating loads.
Tender prices: In August, Chalco’s aluminum fluoride tender reference price was 11,300 yuan/ton, while Weiqiao’s aluminum fluoride tender price was around 11,200 yuan/ton.
2. Market Analysis for the Month
Table 1 Monthly Aluminum Fluoride Price Comparison (yuan/ton)
| Region | July 2026 | August 2026 | MoM | YoY | August 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 11,000 | 11,250 | +2.27% | +17.19% | 9,600 |
| Northwest | 11,100 | 11,350 | +2.25% | +17.01% | 9,700 |
| Southwest | 11,100 | 11,350 | +2.25% | +17.01% | 9,700 |
Data source: Chempricehub
Taking the East China market as a reference, China’s aluminum fluoride market recovered moderately in August, with the trading focus moving up to 11,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27%. The monthly review is as follows:
On the cost side, fluorspar prices kept climbing amid mine shutdowns, rising from 3,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3,700 yuan/ton by the end. Aluminum hydroxide prices moved downward, weighed down by high social inventories and the continued release of new capacity. The sulfuric acid market was weak early in the month, but supply pressure became more evident later as maintenance-stopped plants resumed production. Raw material prices moved in different directions; on balance, aluminum fluoride costs rose with fluctuations, transmitting cost pressure downstream.
On the supply side, with tender prices rising slightly at the beginning of the month, producers’ operating rates increased from 35.8% to 37.4%, and producers’ enthusiasm was lifted. On the demand side, domestic electrolytic aluminum demand remained stable, while overseas electrolytic aluminum projects ramped up faster, supporting export demand for domestic aluminum fluoride. Meanwhile, as raw material costs kept rising, downstream aluminum producers became somewhat more accepting of high-priced supply.
Overall, in September, the domestic aluminum fluoride market is expected to be supported by costs, and tender prices are likely to continue rising, though the upside remains relatively limited.
3. Analysis of Key Factors
Cost Side
Sulfuric Acid: In August 2026, supply-demand contradictions deepened in China’s sulfuric acid market and prices declined with fluctuations. The national average price of 98% sulfuric acid fell from 1,750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1,650 yuan/ton by the end, with a monthly average of 1,709 yuan/ton, down 153.3 yuan/ton month-on-month, or 8.23%. At the beginning of the month, the domestic sulfuric acid market continued the weak trend that had persisted since July. The fertilizer market started below expectations, leaving trading sentiment subdued. Smelting acid plants in Shandong, Hubei and other regions that had completed maintenance gradually resumed production, spot supply continued to increase, and supply pressure began to emerge.
By mid-month, downward pressure had increased significantly. The additional supply from restarted plants had fully filled the gap left by maintenance. Acid prices in Shandong, Hunan, Henan, Anhui and other regions fell successively, with reductions mostly concentrated in the range of 70–190 yuan/ton. Some acid producers saw inventories gradually accumulate. East China and Southwest China continued to be impacted by low-priced supply from surrounding areas, intensifying cross-regional cargo flows. Demand remained weak, downstream operating rates stayed low, and a widespread “buy on strength, not on weakness” mentality further lengthened downstream purchasing cycles.
In late August, regional trends diverged. Prices were under pressure in most regions, while the Fujian market ticked up slightly because prices there were already low and acid plant inventories were limited. However, this was not enough to reverse the overall weak pattern. Buyers and sellers turned more conservative, and market sentiment became increasingly cautious. Downstream fertilizer operating rates recovered only modestly, while chemical-sector operating rates continued to decline, neither providing effective support. Autumn fertilizer demand ramped up slowly, and real demand was limited, leaving traders and downstream users with little enthusiasm to purchase.
Market prices were mixed: in Zhejiang, sulfur-burning acid prices fell 6.00% month-on-month and were unchanged year-on-year; in Anhui, sulfur-burning acid prices declined 4.76% month-on-month and were unchanged year-on-year; in Henan, smelting acid prices fell 15.97% month-on-month and 13.29% year-on-year; in Fujian, smelting acid prices rose 4.09% month-on-month and 2.66% year-on-year. Overall, China’s sulfuric acid market remained weak in August, with deepening supply-demand imbalances and weakening cost support continuing to drag down the trading focus.
Fluorspar: In the current period, the fluorspar market consolidated at high levels with a strong upward tone. In August, sentiment in the 97% fluorspar concentrate market was generally elevated. At the beginning of the month, anhydrous hydrogen fluoride contract prices rose by 400–600 yuan/ton. In addition, mine shutdowns in major producing areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Fujian continued to slow the release of spot supply, while major downstream plants in the north still showed no signs of restarting operations. These factors continually strengthened fluorspar holders' resolve to support prices. Supplier offers remained high, downstream buying was limited, and market sentiment diverged between north and south early in the month.
In the northern market, imported supply flowed in smoothly, and major downstream consumers entered the market to purchase, buying within a rationally elevated price range. Downstream demand basically completed its staged purchases at that point, and the upward push in the north receded. In the southern market, sentiment stayed high, and some downstream companies with low inventories had relatively urgent purchasing needs. As a result, high-grade transaction prices of 3,800–3,850 yuan/ton guided the market. However, high-priced trading volumes were limited, and most downstream buyers resisted these levels owing to weak end-demand.
By mid-month, the momentum of the supply-demand tug-of-war had cooled, and southern transaction prices were mostly concentrated at 3,700–3,750 yuan/ton. In late August, continued negative signals from end-demand and persistent bearish views on the longer-term market meant that actual deals still awaited pricing guidance from the new month’s anhydrous hydrogen fluoride contracts, despite some price-supporting sentiment. Market sentiment shifted frequently during the month, and trading approaches were generally cautious.
4. Market Forecast and Analysis
Chempricehub forecast: Looking ahead to September, upstream costs for the domestic aluminum fluoride market are expected to continue rising. The fluorspar market is likely to stay tight, with a strong atmosphere of price increases; sulfuric acid prices are expected to remain stable; and aluminum hydroxide prices will keep falling due to supply-demand conditions. Although raw material price trends will diverge, the overall cost of aluminum fluoride is expected to remain high.
On the supply side, producers’ profit margins are being continuously squeezed, forcing many manufacturers to shift to flexible production, while some units have been involuntarily idled. Producers’ willingness to raise prices is gradually strengthening. On the demand side, downstream electrolytic aluminum producers continue to dominate procurement, and supply-demand negotiations remain deadlocked. Driven by sustained cost pressure being passed downstream, the aluminum fluoride market is expected to see a narrow upward movement in September.
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