Preface: Recently, domestic rosin prices have remained relatively firm, while terminal demand for pressure-sensitive adhesives has been weak. Combined with a sharp contraction in orders for rosin resin, the market is moving in a stalemate.

During the week, rosin prices saw sporadic declines. On one hand, masson pine rosin has seen some new supply from fresh oleoresin and potassium soap demand is weak; new masson pine oleoresin will be supplied gradually, causing prices to loosen. On the other hand, slash pine rosin is scarce in volume, and the price arbitrage window between domestic and international markets has not opened. Together with bulk procurement by downstream buyers, the support at the bottom is relatively strong. Rosin resin producers have seen a significant drop in operating rates, while downstream bargaining power has strengthened. Facing high cost pressure, producers are quoting around the breakeven level, with cautious sentiment prevailing and a clear weakening in willingness to concede.

Adhesive C5 petroleum resin saw its floor price further decline during the week, while high-end prices remained relatively firm. The mainstream price range has adjusted to 12,500-14,500 yuan/ton. Additionally, some hydrogenated petroleum resin prices have dropped to around 15,000 yuan/ton. In the downward cycle, the terminal market is mainly receiving existing orders and digesting inventories. Orders in downstream and end-consumer goods markets have decreased significantly, and the reduction in just-in-time demand far exceeds expectations, leading to a decrease in demand for rosin resin.

Comparing rosin resin and adhesive C5 petroleum resin over the past two years, rosin provides rigid support to rosin resin. In 2025, rosin resin prices were at times much higher than adhesive C5 petroleum resin, and as a result, rosin resin was largely replaced. Looking at the production comparison chart for 2025-2026, 2025 production was only 50-70% of 2026 levels. This year, due to supply shortages caused by the US-Iran war that drove up C5 petroleum resin prices, some orders shifted to rosin resin, leading to overproduction in the downstream sector from March to May.

In summary, since the end of April, domestic and international downstream participants have seen the start of US-Iran peace talks, which has led to a bearish market sentiment. The downstream and end-user sectors are still digesting the earlier overproduced volumes, so procurement volume will remain at a low level in the near term. Demand for both rosin resin and petroleum resin has dropped to the year's low. However, limited spot supply of rosin in the market, coupled with a production season that does not start until July, and international rosin prices staying at 12,000-12,500 yuan/ton, support rosin prices at 12,300-12,500 yuan/ton, providing strong support for rosin resin. Therefore, the weakening of terminal demand will gradually transmit upstream, likely dragging overall prices slightly downward.