Introduction: At the end of June, several private domestic refineries planned maintenance shutdowns, prompting an early price rally in the mixed C5 market. As of June 25, the average price of mixed C5 in Shandong stood at 6,210 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan/ton week-on-week, a rise of 12.91%.

I. Recent Mixed C5 Market Moves Against the Trend

The domestic mixed C5 market has seen a notable uptick recently. In Shandong, the price range for mixed C5 fluctuated between 6,090 and 6,210 yuan/ton. In East China, the price range was between 5,800 and 5,900 yuan/ton. Although easing geopolitical tensions led to a sharp drop in international oil prices, and the refined oil product market in Shandong continued its downward trend — with refineries' gasoline prices pressured lower, weak fundamental demand, and a lukewarm market atmosphere — the mixed C5 market saw a pronounced contraction in supply expectations, prompting downstream players to stock up in advance. Refineries took the opportunity to push prices higher, with traders and downstream factories actively entering the market. Transaction sentiment was robust in the first half of the week, but resistance to higher prices emerged in the second half, cooling trading activity. In East China, supply of mixed C5 is expected to recover, which curbed the upside.

II. Mixed C5 Supply and Demand Expected to Tighten

According to information from chempricehub, at the end of June, ShengHong Refining & Chemical, Weilian Chemical, Wantong Petrochemical, Shengxing Petrochemical, and a refinery in Northeast China are all scheduled for varying degrees of maintenance. It is expected that the available supply of mixed C5 in the domestic market will be significantly reduced in July, with supply-side factors providing early positive momentum.

Table 1 Comparison of Mixed C5 Commodity Volume (10,000 tons)

| Product Name | June | July (Estimate) | Change | Change (%) | Impact Period | Reason for Maintenance |
|----------------|------|-----------------|--------|------------|---------------|------------------------|
| Mixed C5 Commodity Volume | 32.84 | 17.22 | -15.62 | -47.56% | Approx. 45 days | Planned |

Source: chempricehub

III. Market Outlook

Crude Oil: It is expected that international oil prices will have room to decline next week, with WTI potentially trading in the $63-71/barrel range and Brent in the $66-74/barrel range. The core logic behind the forecast for next week's oil price trend is: U.S.-Iran negotiations are progressing steadily, and there is a substantial improvement in the navigation situation through the Strait of Hormuz. The two parties will resume technical talks on the 30th of this month. Geopolitical risks continue to recede, and the oil price center of gravity is moving lower in a volatile manner.

Demand: It is expected that the prices of gasoline and diesel produced by independent refineries will fall by about 50 yuan/ton next week. The retail price limit for refined oil products in this round is still expected to see a significant decline. Therefore, the macroeconomic news remains bearish for the market. Refineries are mainly focused on destocking, while midstream and downstream players are purchasing on a need-to-buy basis while reducing inventories. Market transactions are mostly small-lot orders from retail buyers. It is predicted that independent refineries in Shandong will see gasoline and diesel prices fall first and then rise next week, eventually closing down by about 50 yuan/ton.

Mixed C5: The domestic mixed C5 market is expected to maintain a stable but slightly firm trend in the near term, with the price range in the Shandong market between 6,000 and 6,200 yuan/ton. Although international oil prices are expected to fall and the gasoline market is weakening, creating a generally bearish atmosphere, the supply of mixed C5 from refineries is tight, and the future supply volume is clearly constrained. With supporting and suppressing factors intertwined, the domestic C5 light component market is expected to remain stable with a slightly firm trend next week.