Comparison of Domestic Epichlorohydrin Market Price Changes (Unit: yuan/mt)
| Region | Sep 10 | Sep 3 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong market | 11375 | 11150 | 225 | 2.02% |
| Jiangsu market | 11550 | 11500 | 50 | 0.43% |
| Huangshan market | 11650 | 11500 | 150 | 1.30% |
This week, domestic epichlorohydrin market prices rose steadily. The weekly average price in the Jiangsu market was 11,520 yuan/mt, up 2.04% week on week. A tight supply-demand structure and strengthening cost support together constituted the main drivers of the price increase. On the supply side, some units in Shandong were shut down or operating at reduced load, while most companies focused on delivering previous orders, tightening spot supply and further boosting bullish sentiment among producers and traders. Alongside tighter supply, this provided spillover support for the main feedstock glycerin, and glycerin prices also trended upward, thereby pushing up production costs for the glycerin-based process and providing rigid support for epichlorohydrin. On the demand side, due to the unexpected shutdown of an epichlorohydrin unit in Shandong, delivery of contracted volumes by some traders was hindered, and market inquiry activity increased. In addition, with overall spot epichlorohydrin supply under little pressure and downstream essential restocking increasing, producers held a strong bullish sentiment, the negotiation center continued to move upward, and market activity was relatively high. As of Sep 10, acceptance-bill delivered prices in the Jiangsu market had risen to 11,500–11,600 yuan/mt, with the market trend generally strong.
Looking ahead to next week, the domestic epichlorohydrin market is expected to run firm. The analysis mainly covers three aspects: cost, supply, and demand. On the cost side, cost support and demand constraints coexist. Domestic glycerin prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, with relatively limited gains, and epichlorohydrin costs will remain supported. On the supply side, some shut-down units will resume operation and simultaneously increase operating loads. In addition, considering the continued price rise, profits from the glycerin-based process will further recover, and relevant units are expected to raise loads. Supply is expected to increase, but the overall increment will be limited, and unit operating status needs continuous attention. On the demand side, driven by the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season, overall supply of the main downstream epoxy resin is expected to grow, and industry capacity utilization is expected to rise to around 47%, providing demand support for the feedstock epichlorohydrin market. However, the prices of the two major raw materials for epoxy resin have simultaneously rebounded to high levels, further intensifying cost pressure and potentially triggering downstream resistance, thereby weakening demand growth momentum. Overall, the current epichlorohydrin market has multiple bullish supports: supply-side expectations have increased somewhat, but incremental growth is expected to be limited; downstream demand is gradually being released for pre-holiday stocking driven by the upcoming double festivals; and cost-side support is expected to strengthen. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, the short-term epichlorohydrin price center is expected to run firm.
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