Lead: During this period, the epichlorohydrin market remained fundamentally weak, with prices holding steady but trending slightly downward. As of August 7, the epichlorohydrin market price in the Jiangsu region was quoted at 11,750 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from July 31. The core reason for the weaker trend was insufficient downstream demand, with strong resistance to high-priced raw materials and a slower purchasing pace. Transactions were mainly small-volume, just-in-time deals, which hindered price increases. High price levels lacked effective transaction support, causing the negotiation focus to shift downward.
During this period, the domestic epichlorohydrin market remained largely stable with minor fluctuations. The weekly average price in the Jiangsu market was 11,790 yuan/ton (acceptance price, delivered), up 2.21% from the previous period. The core raw material glycerin remained firm at high levels (East China 99.5% delivered price: 9,100–9,200 yuan/ton), providing continued cost support for epichlorohydrin. On the supply side, Zibo Feiyuan's unit was shut down on August 2, while Qingdao Bay's unit restarted on August 4. Overall supply declined, spot availability stayed tight, and producers remained inclined to push prices up. However, trading turned subdued after downstream replenishment, and demand follow-through was insufficient, limiting the upside room. Near the weekend, some enterprises offered concessions to move inventory, signaling the onset of weakness. As of August 7, the Jiangsu market price was quoted at 11,750 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from July 31.
In the next period, the domestic epichlorohydrin market is expected to trend downward, but with limited room for price adjustment. The analysis is as follows from the perspectives of cost and supply–demand dynamics:
I. Cost versus supply–demand interplay: profit recovery across both epichlorohydrin processes faces pullback expectations
During this period, the main raw material glycerin prices held firm, providing cost support for the glycerin-based process. In addition, Jiangsu epichlorohydrin prices were stable with minor fluctuations, further narrowing losses for the glycerin-based process. As of August 6, the average profit for glycerin-based epichlorohydrin increased to –360 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous period, a gain of 36.28%. For the propylene-based process, feedstock propylene prices rose with fluctuations, but liquid chlorine prices declined, resulting in a slight increase in production costs. Meanwhile, epichlorohydrin prices held steady with a weakening tendency, and profit margins for the propylene-based process also expanded. Based on Shandong market prices, as of August 6, the average production cost for propylene-based epichlorohydrin was 8,297 yuan/ton, with a weekly average profit of 3,333 yuan/ton, up 289 yuan/ton from the previous period, an increase of 9.49% period-on-period. In the next period, glycerin prices are expected to be stable to slightly weaker, but the cost side will still provide bottom support for epichlorohydrin. However, given bearish factors such as expected supply increases and insufficient demand follow-through, epichlorohydrin prices are expected to decline. Theoretical profit levels for the different processes are likely to contract alongside cost changes.
II. Restarts and load increases in parallel: the tight supply pattern may ease
During this period, domestic epichlorohydrin supply showed a declining trend. Within the period, Zibo Feiyuan's unit was shut down, while units at Qingdao Bay and Inner Mongolia Pangu were restarted. After offsetting shutdowns against restarts, overall epichlorohydrin supply still declined from the previous week. According to data from Chempricehub Information, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic epichlorohydrin industry during the period was 45.52%, down 1.68 percentage points from the previous week. During the week of July 31 to August 6, domestic epichlorohydrin output was 26,900 tons, down 3.24% from the preceding week. In the next period, with Zibo Feiyuan's unit expected to restart on schedule, coupled with Qingdao Bay and Inner Mongolia Pangu gradually raising operating rates, total market supply is expected to trend upward, and the current tight spot circulation situation is likely to ease to some extent. According to data estimates, industry output next week is expected to recover to 27,800 tons, with capacity utilization projected to rise to 47.67%, gradually improving the tight supply situation.
III. Weakening cost support and insufficient orders: downstream epoxy resin operating rates expected to decline
During this period, Dongfang Feiyuan's epoxy resin unit entered the maintenance phase, and Hebei Linyuan's unit under maintenance remained shut down. As a result, overall domestic epoxy resin output contracted slightly. The industry's weekly average capacity utilization rate was 47.02%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous period. Among them, capacity utilization rates for liquid epoxy resin and solid epoxy resin were 49.59% and 33.43%, respectively. Total output was 38,800 tons, down 1.27% from the previous period, showing a phased tightening on the supply side. In the next period, due to weak follow-through on new orders for producers, coupled with continued weakening cost support, product prices are expected to face downward pressure. Enterprise profit margins will be further compressed, and overall production enthusiasm will remain low, with the possibility of load reductions. According to Chempricehub Information estimates, the epoxy resin industry capacity utilization rate is expected to edge down to 46.89% in the next period, down 0.13 percentage points from this week. Consequently, consumption demand for the upstream raw material epichlorohydrin is also expected to shrink.
In summary, with cost support still in place but supply increasing while demand remains limited, the domestic epichlorohydrin market is expected to see a downward correction in the coming week.
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