Ethylene oxide prices remain firm at elevated levels.

1. Today's Summary

1. Sep 22: A meeting is scheduled between the U.S. and Iran, with the market anticipating a easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (October contract) closed at $94.59/bbl, down $1.19 (-1.24% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $99.25/bbl, down $1.09 (-1.09% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (November 2026 contract) fell by 13.7 yuan to 717.1 yuan/bbl; night session prices dropped by 22.3 yuan to 694.8 yuan/bbl.

2. Sep 22: Port-side ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia price stood at $1,180/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable. On the supply side, despite weak downward pressure on MEG prices, spot supply in the EO market has not shown signs of significant loosening. Supply continues to support the market, while downstream industries are primarily consuming contracted volumes steadily. Regarding costs, ethylene producers mainly supply via contracts, leaving limited spot resources available for sale. However, derivative markets have performed poorly, with most transactions maintaining contract-based volume flows and weak willingness to place new orders. Cost factors provide support. Overall, short-term fundamentals offer guidance, keeping EO prices firm. Continued attention should be paid to upstream and downstream dynamics.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry was 49.26%. As of the last trading day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was 1,585.39 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene today was 1,351 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain firm at high levels in the short term. On the supply side, although related product MEG prices have retreated, they remain relatively high, and there is no obvious pressure on spot EO supply. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries before the holiday have been sparse, reducing purchasing enthusiasm for EO, with steady consumption of contracts being the norm. Regarding costs, recent macroeconomic weakness has dampened market sentiment, with weak buying activity. Ethylene prices may continue to stabilize, providing cost support. Overall, supply and cost factors will continue to support the market in the short term, suggesting EO prices may remain stable. Future changes in upstream and downstream sectors require monitoring.

5. Related Products

① Ethylene (Feedstock): Derivative prices mostly declined today. Current market transactions are concentrated on essential procurement needs. With falling derivative prices and weak profitability, external purchasing demand is difficult to stimulate. Ethylene prices are expected to remain largely stagnant in the next trading day. Mainstream negotiated prices in East China are around 9,400 yuan/ton, while Shandong prices are in the range of 9,200-9,250 yuan/ton. In terms of USD pricing, naphtha prices have decreased, but shipping markets remain tight. The USD market is expected to remain resilient; however, PVC-related derivatives have limited ability to absorb high-priced imported ethylene, which may constrain USD price increases. The price range is likely to hover around $1,150-$1,210/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may loosen slightly. Key raw material EO is expected to remain stable, with supply supporting the market. Downstream industries are consuming steadily. Ethylene producers have limited sellable inventory, but derivative buyers show moderate interest, leading to potential price stagnation and some cost support. Downstream monomer factories are adopting a wait-and-see approach, showing little purchasing activity, with sporadic transactions and thin trading volumes based on negotiation. Consequently, EPEG prices in the key East China market are forecasted to range between 11,400-12,000 yuan/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Signs of easing geopolitical tensions have led to lower costs for MEG. Long-term supply expectations suggest the tight situation will alleviate, causing the short-term upward trend to reverse, with room for correction remaining. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup prices in East China are predicted to be in the range of 6,800-6,900 yuan/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)