Ethylene Tar Market: Mainstream Prices Rise (September 4–10, 2026)

1. Market Focus This Week

1. The low-intensity military conflict between the US and Iran has still not stopped, and reports say Saudi oil facilities have been attacked, intensifying market concerns over supply risks.

2. The Houthis struck Saudi oil facilities; the US-Iran standoff continues; Iran has threatened to attack Bahraini oil tankers; Middle Eastern oil-producing countries face the risk of conflict spillover.

3. US President Trump hinted that the conflict may continue until around the midterm elections, increasing instability in the Middle East.

2. This Week's Market Analysis

Ethylene tar market situation this week: International crude oil prices are currently high, and during the week the mainstream transaction price of high-temperature coal tar in Shandong was 6,720 RMB/mt, up 1,910 RMB/mt week on week, providing strong support to the ethylene tar market. Combined with the impact of feedstock lightening, supply in the market is tight, and ethylene tar market participants are optimistic. Driven by bullish factors on the cost, competing product, and supply sides, ethylene tar market prices rose sharply during the week.

3. Ethylene Tar and Related Markets Statistics Table

Source: Chempricehub.

4. Next Week's Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:

As of the 10th, Sinopec's naphtha ex-works price for September 2026 is expected to be adjusted to 6,312 RMB/mt, up 332 RMB/mt from the previous month.

International oil prices are expected to have room to rise next week. Under the baseline scenario of no significant easing in geopolitical tensions, WTI may be at USD 91–99/bbl, and Brent at USD 96–104/bbl. The core logic for forecasting next week's oil price trend is as follows: US-Iran maritime friction continues, navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz are rising, and geopolitical risks will further support oil prices. Key focus areas:

1. Supply side: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. The US and Iran are constantly contesting shipping lane dominance. Traffic through the strait remains low, and supply risks are rising.

2. Demand side: Global crude oil demand growth is sluggish. Consumption in Europe and the US remains weak under pressure from high oil prices, with only emerging Asian economies maintaining some resilience. Overall, the demand side lacks strong upward momentum.

3. Geopolitics: The US-Iran military confrontation in the Persian Gulf has extended from military targets to commercial shipping. Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities have caused geopolitical risk to spill over from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea route, putting simultaneous pressure on two key channels for Saudi crude exports, while the geopolitical risk premium continues to push oil prices higher.

4. Financial attributes: Federal Reserve officials have recently issued hawkish signals intensively. Market expectations for a September rate hike have risen to around 60%, and US Treasury yields have risen in tandem. If the rate hike expectation materializes, it will support the US dollar for a period and create bearish disturbances for dollar-denominated crude oil.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast: For the next period, supported by pre-holiday restocking demand, the coal tar market may continue to run at high levels, with strong cost-side support. In the short term, carbon black market prices show no downward trend, and market gains are expected to continue next week.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast: The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to remain firm at high levels next period. Key focus areas:

1. Supply side. Affected by structural shortages of raw materials and rising procurement costs, coking enterprises have increased voluntary production cuts. Overall output fluctuates only slightly, and high-temperature coal tar output remains low.

2. Demand side. Due to soaring costs, downstream plants face increased financial pressure. Some plants are willing to reduce operating rates to some extent, but this has not yet been implemented. Therefore, operations remain temporarily stable, and rigid demand for coal tar is steady.

3. Sentiment. As prices reach historic highs, downstream buyers are becoming increasingly cautious about taking delivery.

4. Inventory. Coking enterprises currently have no inventory pressure.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast: Next period, international crude oil still has room to rise. Marine fuel feedstock prices are expected to remain high, and cost-side support will remain firm. The 180CST wholesale price may remain volatile at a high level, mainly digesting earlier gains, while the national weekly average price will continue to rise week on week. It is expected that next period the national mainstream ex-tank wholesale transaction price for 180CST will be 6,350–6,550 RMB/mt; the mainstream bunker delivery transaction price for China VI 0# diesel will be 9,000–9,300 RMB/mt; and the mainstream bunker delivery transaction price for light marine fuel oil will be 8,900–9,200 RMB/mt.

Ethylene Tar Market Forecast for Next Period: Looking ahead to next week, the ethylene tar market is expected to remain on a relatively strong trend. On the supply side, affected by feedstock lightening, ethylene tar supply has declined, but Yangzi Petrochemical plans to start up in the near term, so overall supply may remain relatively stable. On the cost side, international crude oil may continue to rise, providing strong cost support. On the competing product side, high-temperature coal tar is currently at high prices and is expected to remain firm at high levels next week. Overall, the market is bullish, and ethylene tar is expected to remain strong next week.

For more weekly market analysis, please see the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.