Lead: International crude oil has recently shown wider price swings, with volatile trends and noticeable fluctuations in market sentiment. Affected by upstream feedstock movements, a wait-and-see atmosphere is spreading across the market. At present, domestic ethylene tar spot prices remain temporarily stable, with both upstream and downstream players mostly adopting a watchful approach. All parties are awaiting clearer direction, while downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand.
The ethylene tar market mainly moved in a consolidation pattern, with some enterprises making minor upward adjustments. During the week, international crude oil prices fell first and then rose, weakening cost-side support. Although the high-temperature coal tar market and downstream carbon black market prices rose this week, providing some positive support to the ethylene tar market, the relatively weak downstream demand and resistance to high prices capped the upside for ethylene tar prices. Ethylene tar prices remained range-bound this week.
Yangzi Petrochemical, Hainan Refining & Chemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical are under maintenance. Maoming and Jieyang Petrochemical have shifted their products to captive use, and Guangzhou Petrochemical's plan for self-use has been implemented, reducing market circulation in some regions. However, Dushanzi Phase II has been started up, and Sinopec-SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical and Gulei Petrochemical have resumed operations, releasing new supply. Overall, changes are limited.
Table 1 Recent Price Comparison
| Product | Region/Category | Current Price | Price Last Week | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent | 90.74 | 94.07 | -3.33 | -3.54% | USD/barrel |
| Ethylene Tar | North China | 3700 | 3700 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| East China | 3650 | 3650 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton | |
| South China | 3459 | 3459 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton | |
| Central China | 3650 | 3600 | 50 | 1.39% | CNY/ton | |
| Northeast China | 4000 | 4000 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton | |
| High-Temperature Coal Tar | Shandong | 4100 | 3950 | 150 | 3.80% | CNY/ton |
| Anthracene Oil | Shandong | 4250 | 4050 | 200 | 4.94% | CNY/ton |
| Carbon Black N330 | Shandong | 7400 | 7300 | 100 | 1.37% | CNY/ton |
| Slurry Oil | Shandong | 4500 | 4600 | -100 | -2.17% | CNY/ton |
| Liquefied Natural Gas | Shandong | 5875 | 5925 | -50 | -0.84% | CNY/ton |
| Fuel Oil (Marine 180CST) | Dongying | 4500 | 4450 | 50 | 1.12% | CNY/ton |
During this period, the negotiation atmosphere for new carbon black orders in the domestic market improved. The price increase of raw material coal tar gradually expanded during the week, with the largest gain in Shanxi. As cost pressure mounted, sellers raised offers for new carbon black orders. However, downstream tire manufacturers had made early purchases last week, with some transactions concluded at low prices. Therefore, after prices were pushed up, negotiations were mostly for small orders based on rigid demand, and the inquiry atmosphere in the market improved. Looking ahead to next week, raw material prices still have room for catch-up increases, so new carbon black order prices will remain in firm negotiations, and the market is expected to hold at high levels.
For semi-steel radial tires, domestic market sales in the latter part of this month still showed no significant improvement. Some distributors passively replenished inventory under sales target pressure, and the channel as a whole mainly purchased based on rigid demand, with some merchants' inventories rising. For all-steel radial tires, market shipments in the latter part of this month fell short of expectations. Some distributors proactively cut prices to boost sales, but with limited results. Some brands launched promotions, further reinforcing a bearish market sentiment. Downstream purchasing willingness was weak, and many transactions were postponed to next month.
This period saw a significant rise in the domestic high-temperature coal tar market. After some regions showed an upward trend last week, positive factors continued to be released. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The cost of coal charged to coke ovens declined as coking coal prices softened, but the decline was smaller than that of coke, putting some coke enterprises under loss pressure again. As a result, operating rates at independent coking plants edged down, and some coke enterprises in certain regions voluntarily reduced production, lowering coal tar supply. Although downstream overall operating rates declined, the supply-demand gap in the market remained relatively large, so downstream buying sentiment was strong. Moreover, the main downstream products, coal tar pitch and carbon black, are temporarily following the upward trend. Despite substantial cost pressure on downstream sectors, the market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term, but the momentum for further highs is limited.
Looking ahead, as coal tar prices reach highs, downstream plants face surging cost pressure, and transferring costs to end users is difficult. Downstream buying sentiment is expected to cool. In the downstream carbon black market, there is significant pressure to push up new order prices. End-market demand growth is limited, and buyers are resistant to high carbon black offers. Supported by high raw material costs, new orders in the market will remain in firm negotiations. On the demand side, summer is a traditional off-season, while large-scale energy storage projects are in a concentrated stocking period. Anode material demand is generally stable with a positive trend, and the main product, coating pitch, is improving, but by-products are mediocre. Next week, international crude oil may continue to rise, and high prices will provide strong support to the ethylene tar market. Ethylene tar prices are expected to maintain a firm consolidation trend in the short term, but with limited upside.
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