Recently, the situation in the Middle East has remained tense, driving up international energy prices. As one of the world's largest net energy importers, Europe has experienced a rapid surge in energy costs. Latest data show that the Dutch TTF natural gas futures price has risen from €25–30 per megawatt-hour before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict to €50–60, nearly doubling. International oil prices once approached $100 per barrel, marking an annual increase of 50%–60%. Market expectations have gradually shifted from an initial "short-term conflict" to "medium-term tension."

The current Middle East conflict, compounded by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is comprehensively driving up Europe's energy costs. Taking France as an example, according to statistics from the French television channel BFMTV, the average price of diesel in France has increased by over 20% compared to before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, while gasoline prices have risen by more than 11%. The surge in energy prices has significantly impacted many industries. For instance, in the fishing industry, fuel costs account for a substantial portion of operational expenses. Rising oil prices have led to a significant decline in profits for some fishing vessels, with some even facing losses upon departure. Representatives from the French Fisheries Shipowners' Union have stated that the French fishing fleet may face "large-scale suspensions," primarily due to the sharp rise in diesel prices.

Soaring energy prices have placed sustained pressure on Europe's energy-intensive industries, posing significant downside risks to the economic outlook. Goldman Sachs estimates that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices would reduce the eurozone economy by approximately 0.2 percentage points, with Central and Eastern Europe experiencing a decline of up to 0.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation would rise by about 0.3 percentage points. The latest data from S&P Global shows that the eurozone's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March fell to 50.5, significantly lower than the previous month's 51.9. Additionally, a recent forecast by Germany's IFO Institute indicates that, under a scenario of de-escalation, Germany's economy is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, approximately 0.2 percentage points lower than in a no-shock scenario. In an escalation scenario, growth is projected to drop to 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with a noticeable slowdown in recovery. Meanwhile, the UK's preliminary composite PMI for March was 51.0, down from 53.7 in February, reaching its lowest level in six months.

In response to the impact, the European Union is discussing adjustments to natural gas storage rules, and European countries have successively implemented various measures to address rising energy prices. However, the effectiveness of these policies remains to be seen. Analysis by the French Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations suggests that the current Middle East conflict once again highlights Europe's dependence on imported fossil fuels, reflecting its economic vulnerability. Some countries have called for weakening carbon markets or delaying climate policies, but this logic is flawed. The issue is not that the energy transition is progressing too quickly but that it remains insufficient. In the long term, European countries urgently need to accelerate the transformation of their energy structures and reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical uncertainty, accelerating electrification, industrial decarbonization, and reducing dependence on natural gas are key pathways to achieving energy security, enhancing economic competitiveness, and strengthening strategic autonomy.