Lead: This week, the domestic acrylic acid market traded in a range-bound, consolidating pattern amid a tug-of-war between weakening raw material cost support and phased supply tightening. The raw material propylene market rose first and then fell, with prices retreating from highs, which somewhat weakened cost-side support; however, on the supply side, unit load reductions at Guangxi Huayi and the shutdown of Hongxin Chemical tightened spot availability within the region, providing a degree of floor support for acrylic acid prices. As of August 27, mainstream spot quotes for acrylic acid in East China stood at 7,250–7,700 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton from the previous week, representing a week-on-week increase of 3.73%.
I. Raw materials: propylene market rises then falls, retreating from highs
This week, the domestic propylene spot market followed a pattern of initial gains followed by declines, driven by a combination of macro sentiment recovery and phased supply-demand tightness. At the beginning of the week, low inventories coupled with cost support kept spot prices on an upward trajectory. Heading into mid-to-late week, crude oil and futures markets moved notably lower, downstream buyers became less willing to accept high-priced raw materials, and expectations of concentrated unit restarts in early September on the supply side prompted a more cautious market mindset. Spot gains quickly narrowed and prices started to correct downward. In regional markets, East China propylene spot prices rose before pulling back. Regional supply and demand were both subdued overall; supported by expectations of an approaching typhoon and refinery price support, the trading focus shifted modestly higher in phases. In mid-week, PL futures plunged sharply, compounded by downward adjustments to mainstream prices in Shandong, prompting market participants to adopt a wait-and-see stance, and the center of gravity for actual transactions moved lower accordingly. As of August 27, mainstream propylene transactions in Shandong were concluded at 8,720 yuan/ton, down 3.16% week-on-week; in East China, mainstream propylene transactions were at 8,825 yuan/ton, down 0.23% week-on-week.
II. Acrylic acid market: supply tightening offsets weaker costs, prices firm to slightly stronger
This week, the East China acrylic acid market ran firm-to-slightly-strong, with mainstream spot quotes ranging from 7,250 to 7,700 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 3.73%. Against the backdrop of propylene prices retreating from highs, acrylic acid prices rose amid fluctuations, primarily benefiting from phased supply tightening.
On the supply side, Guangxi Huayi's acrylic acid unit operated at reduced load this week, while Hongxin Chemical's unit remained shut down. Regional capacity utilization declined accordingly, spot availability in the market tightened, and supply-side positives gradually emerged. Under the dual impact of concentrated load reductions and shutdowns, overall industry operating rates fell, available spot supply in the market shrank, and sellers' willingness to hold firm on prices strengthened. Buoyed by these factors, acrylic acid producers and major holders raised their offers accordingly, with the price center of gravity in some regions moving modestly higher.
On the demand side, downstream specialty ester and SAP producers continued to work through contract volumes and earlier inventories, with limited follow-through in spot procurement. Specialty ester and SAP plants currently hold relatively adequate raw material inventories and have slowed their pace of market buying, with only certain end-users making small, need-based inquiries. Overall, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials remains limited, and transactions are mostly centered on essential requirements.
III. Market outlook: the cost-versus-supply tug-of-war is set to continue
Looking ahead to next week, the East China acrylic acid market is expected to sustain a range-bound consolidation pattern. On the raw material front, the propylene market is likely to trade at elevated levels with range-bound fluctuations, offering moderate cost-side support. Acrylic acid producers and holders are expected to maintain a steady stance, largely continuing their prevailing market-following quote strategy. Downstream specialty ester and SAP plants are still likely to prioritize consuming existing contracts and inventories, with weak inclination toward new orders, leaving limited scope for notable demand-side expansion. Taking all factors into account, acrylic acid prices are expected to largely hold a consolidating trend next week.
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