Introduction: The quota system has locked in supply elasticity, reshaping industry competition dynamics. Refrigerants have evolved from cyclical commodities into long-term investment themes with "scarcity premiums." Leading companies leverage quota barriers to secure sustained high profitability, while fourth-generation refrigerants and liquid cooling fluorinated fluids open up second growth curves.

Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH) – Absolute Quota Leader, Leading Fourth-Gen Layout

• Holds a leading market share of 45.82% in R32 for 2025.
• Possesses a complete product portfolio covering first to fourth-generation fluorinated refrigerants. Current fourth-gen refrigerant capacity is approximately 8,000 tons/year, with plans to add nearly 50,000 tons. The high-performance fluorochlorine new materials project (HFO-1234yf) is planned for 35,000 tons/year. Upon completion, total fourth-gen capacity will reach 52,000 tons/year.
• 2025 Performance Forecast: Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 3.54-3.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 80%-101%. Refrigerant segment revenue reached RMB 13.54 billion, up 43.37% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of low profitability in non-fluorine refrigerant businesses, the profitability and proportion of the refrigerant business have significantly increased, driving the company's performance into an upward cycle independent of the broader chemical industry.

Dongyue Group (00189.HK) – No.1 in R22 Quota, Full Release of Earnings Leverage

• Manages its refrigerant business through controlling Dongyue Green Cooling Technology. Holds 44,000 tons of R22 quota (ranking first) and 86,000 tons of third-generation quotas, supported by upstream methane chloride and caustic soda.
• 2025 Annual Report: Revenue reached RMB 14.36 billion (+1.2%), net profit attributable was RMB 1.642 billion (+102.5%), with a gross margin of 30.8% (+9.2 percentage points). The refrigerant segment revenue was RMB 4.94 billion (+52.1%), with segment profit of RMB 2.288 billion (+183.71%).

Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH) – Comprehensive Portfolio, Highest Earnings Leverage

• Holds 122,000 tons of HFCs production quota for 2025 (15.2% market share). Quota shares for R134a, R125, R32, and R143a are 23.97%, 18.43%, 11.81%, and 15.48%, respectively. The company is actively improving its integrated upstream-downstream industry chain layout, with projects like Fujian Dongying's lithium hexafluorophosphate and Zhejiang Sanmei's FEP/PVDF progressing steadily, expanding into fluorine-containing new materials.
• 2025 net profit growth is forecast at 155%-176%, the most prominent in the industry. Its comprehensive product range allows flexible response to supply-demand changes. However, R134a quota adjustments in 2026 warrant attention for their impact on the profit structure.

Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) – Supported by Fluoropolymer Business, Forward-Looking Fourth-Gen Refrigerant Layout

• Holds 60,300 tons of HFCs product quota for 2026. Owns 3 fluorite mining rights and 2 exploration rights, with proven fluorite reserves of 4.8527 million tons, representing a full industry chain layout.
• 2025 Annual Report: Revenue was RMB 5.206 billion (+13.04%), net profit attributable was RMB 562 million (+123.46%). Fluorocarbon chemicals revenue reached RMB 2.77 billion (+13.3%), with a gross margin of 33.3% (+12.9 percentage points).
• Fourth-Gen Projects: The Baotou Industrial Park plans for 20,000 tons/year of HFO-1234yf and 30,000 tons/year of HFO-1234ze, expected to commence operation in 2026.

Haohua Technology (600378.SH) – Empowered by Sinochem Lantian, No.2 in R134a Quota

• Sinochem Lantian holds 104,500 tons of third-generation refrigerant quota (domestic rank 3), including 54,100 tons of R134a quota (52% share, domestic rank 2).
• Leveraging the Sinochem Lantian platform, Haohua Technology benefits from a prominent R134a quota advantage and stands to gain the most from the确定性 of rigid demand in automotive air conditioning. It has also laid out plans for fourth-generation refrigerants R-1234ze and R-1234yf, promising long-term growth potential.

HEC (Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics Co., Ltd.) (600673.SH) – Dual-Driven by Refrigerants and Liquid Cooling

• Holds approximately 52,500 tons of third-generation refrigerant quota, with the effective quota increased to about 60,000 tons through quota trading and category conversion. It is the only enterprise in South China with a complete chlor-fluorine chemical industry chain.
• HEC is actively entering the liquid cooling fluorinated fluid赛道. Technologies like laminated foil, core liquid cooling components, and fluorinated cooling fluids are achieving rapid industrialization, precisely targeting the core bottleneck of energy consumption and heat dissipation in the AI industry chain. As liquid cooling technology shifts from "optional" to "essential," demand for fluorinated cooling fluids is expected to experience explosive growth, opening new growth space for HEC.

Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915.SZ) – Return to Profitability, Focused on Full Fluorochemical Chain

• Has a relatively complete fluorochemical industry chain layout, primarily focused on perchloroethylene and R125 in the refrigerant sector. Returned to profitability in 2025 (net profit attributable forecast: RMB 16-20 million). As a small-to-medium cap stock, its earnings leverage depends on the R125 supply-demand dynamics and the sustainability of its pesticide intermediate business.

In summary, the refrigerant industry is in a long-cycle upswing characterized by supply locked by the quota system and steady demand growth. The共振 of rigid supply, resilient demand, and concentrated market structure has systematically elevated the industry's profit center.

Investment Focus:

• Leading Players with Largest Quotas & Most Complete Portfolios (Juhua, Dongyue): Positioned to fully reap quota dividends during the high-growth cycle.
• High-Leverage Theme (Sanmei): Exhibits the highest earnings leverage during the industry upturn; its comprehensive portfolio allows flexible adaptation to supply-demand changes across different products.
• Transformation Theme: Monitor the forward-looking fourth-gen refrigerant layouts of Yonghe and Juhua, as well as the new growth from HEC in the liquid cooling fluorinated fluid赛道.

Future Spot Market Price & Corporate Profitability Forecast
2026 East China Fluorinated Refrigerant Spot Market Price & Profit Forecast Table (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | R22 | R32 | R125 | R134a |
| :------ | :---- | :----- | :----- | :----- |
| Price | 19,048 | 68,562 | 48,494 | 65,135 |
| YoY | -36% | +27% | +8% | +31% |
| Profit | 6,804 | 48,578 | 37,229 | 37,999 |
| YoY | -65% | +21% | +49% | +23% |

Data Source: chempricehub

Based on forecast data, the price and profit performance of mainstream refrigerant varieties in 2026 show significant divergence:

• R22 forecast average price is RMB 19,048/ton, down 36% YoY; profit plunges 65% YoY. This is mainly dragged down by two factors: high costs of raw material anhydrous hydrofluoric acid due to international geopolitical impacts, and continuously shrinking downstream maintenance demand, severely squeezing profit margins under pressure on both volume and price.
• R32 forecast average price is RMB 68,562/ton, up 27% YoY. Supported by low quota levels at the year's start, stronger-than-expected seasonal air conditioning stockpiling demand, and producers' active strategy of controlling volume to maintain prices, price resilience is notable.
• R134a forecast average price is RMB 65,135/ton, with a profit of RMB 37,999/ton, up 31% and 23% YoY respectively. Its market logic is similar to R32, centering on a "price-first, control-volume-to-maintain-price" core strategy. Relying on rigid demand from automotive air conditioning and domestic trade quota倾斜, it maintains high profitability.
• R125 forecast average price is RMB 48,494/ton, up only 8% YoY, but profit surges 49% YoY. The profit growth far outpaces the price increase, primarily due to a significant drop in the price of raw material perchloroethylene, greatly alleviating cost pressure and significantly enhancing companies' profit retention capability.

Comprehensive investment recommendation ranking, considering the profit outlook of mainstream products and companies' future plans in the fourth-gen refrigerant field, is as follows: Juhua > Zhongxin Fluorine Materials > Lianchuang Group > Haohua Technology > Dongyue Group > Sanmei > HEC > Yonghe.