The annual price exhibited a pattern of "stepwise increases followed by consolidation at high levels," which can be divided into three stages: **I. Core Characteristics of the 2025 Market Trend: Stability in the First Half, Followed by an Uptrend, with Prices Remaining High Throughout the Year** 1. **Rapid Surge at the Beginning of the Year (January to Mid-February):** Prices started at approximately 2,650 RMB/ton and quickly surpassed 3,300 RMB/ton within a short period. This is typically driven by concentrated procurement activities related to spring farming preparations, market sentiment, and international contract negotiations at the start of the year. 2. **Peak in Mid-Year (Late May to Early June):** Prices experienced the strongest rally of the year, reaching a peak of around 3,700 RMB/ton, representing a year-on-year increase of over 36%. This coincided with the prelude to the peak fertilizer demand season in summer and was likely strongly influenced by external factors such as sudden increases in international market prices, geopolitical tensions in major supply regions, or tight shipping logistics. 3. **High-Level Fluctuations in the Second Half (Mid-June to December):** After retreating from the peak, prices consistently fluctuated within the historically high range of 3,400–3,500 RMB/ton, with a slight uptick at the end of the year. This reflects a market transitioning into a stalemate under a tight supply-demand balance after digesting the high prices. **II. Analysis of Key Supply and Demand Influencing Factors** Price fluctuations directly reflect the dynamic changes in supply and demand throughout the year: **Supply Side:** - **High Import Dependence:** China relies heavily on potassium chloride imports. The supply stability, contract pricing, shipping logistics, and geopolitical factors of major international producers (e.g., Canada, Russia, Belarus) directly impact domestic arrival costs and timing. The sharp price surge in May–June was likely a result of sudden events in the international market, such as production cuts by major suppliers, trade sanctions, or soaring shipping costs. - **Domestic Inventory Levels:** Port inventories act as a buffer. Persistently low inventory levels amplify signals of supply tightness, driving rapid price increases. **Demand Side:** - **Stable Agricultural Demand:** As a key component of potash fertilizers, demand is closely tied to domestic grain production and the cultivation area of cash crops, exhibiting strong seasonality (spring farming and summer/autumn top-dressing). The price increases at the beginning and middle of the year closely align with the start of peak fertilizer procurement seasons. - **Compound Fertilizer Production Rhythm:** The operating rates of downstream compound fertilizer plants and their raw material procurement strategies (bulk replenishment or just-in-time purchasing) can exacerbate short-term demand fluctuations. **Market Sentiment and Policy:** - **Bullish Expectations:** When supply uncertainty exists, hoarding and reluctance to sell among market participants (traders, distributors) can intensify price increases. - **Supply and Price Stabilization Policies:** Regulatory measures such as reserve releases and import coordination by authorities like the National Development and Reform Commission and the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives act as "stabilizers" during periods of excessive price increases. This is one of the key reasons why prices did not continue to surge in the second half of the year but instead consolidated at high levels. **III. Summary** The 2025 Chinese potassium chloride (imported) market remained strong overall, with the price center significantly higher than at the beginning of the year. The driving logic was: against the backdrop of rigid and highly seasonal domestic demand, any disturbances (whether anticipated or actual) on the international supply side were quickly amplified and reflected in sharp price fluctuations. The annual price chart clearly illustrates this market trajectory of "external shocks triggering rapid surges, followed by a search for a new equilibrium at high levels." This highlights the critical importance of ensuring supply chain stability to mitigate price volatility and safeguard agricultural security in a highly import-dependent market structure. Under the combined effects of "high import dependence, low domestic production, and persistent rigid demand," the current potassium chloride market remains tight, sustaining strong prices. **Future Market Trend Outlook:** Looking ahead to 2026, some factors supporting the current high prices may change. The market is expected to gradually shift from its current state of high tension to a more relaxed environment, with limited upside potential for prices and downward pressure on the price center. 1. **Gradual Easing of Supply Tightness Expectations:** The key variable lies in the fulfillment of the major import contract. With the execution of the import contract at $348/ton, the volume of imported potassium chloride arriving at ports is expected to steadily increase starting from the second quarter of 2026, significantly improving overall market liquidity. This will fundamentally alleviate the current tightness in spot supply. 2. **Sustained Demand-Suppressing Effect of High Prices:** Current high prices have significantly increased cost pressures on the downstream compound fertilizer industry. If prices remain at extremely high levels for an extended period, they will further dampen fertilizer purchasing willingness among end-users (farmers), potentially leading to demand compression or substitution, which in turn could restrain potassium prices. 3. **Price Trend Judgment:** In the short term, supported by rigid demand for spring farming preparations and existing tight supply, prices are expected to remain firm, with potential minor fluctuations due to localized supply shortages. However, over the course of 2026, as imported supplies replenish the market, the period of tightest supply and demand is likely to pass. Domestic potassium chloride prices are expected to exhibit a trend of "high-level fluctuations followed by a gradual and moderate decline," though the extent of the decline is likely limited due to international cost support. **Overall Forecast:** The 2026 potassium chloride market will be a tug-of-war between "high costs" and "strong regulation," as well as "rigid demand" and "high-price suppression." Prices are unlikely to return to the low levels seen at the beginning of 2025, but sustained unilateral surges far beyond the baseline range are also improbable.