Introduction: Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, crude oil futures have surged significantly, driving a broad upward trend in aromatics-related products in the first quarter. However, influenced by the recent continuous decline in gasoline prices, aromatics-related products have followed the fluctuations in gasoline prices, leading to a price correction.

1. Weak Support from Gasoline: Aromatics-Related Products Rise First, Then Fall
   On February 28, 2026, the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict began, and later, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp rise in international crude oil futures, with intraday highs reaching up to $120 per barrel. As a result, domestic gasoline retail prices increased significantly, driving up domestic gasoline wholesale prices. Since the start of the conflict, from February 28 onward, the domestic wholesale price of 92# gasoline has risen by 2,650 yuan per ton. The substantial increase in refined oil prices further propelled the price of mixed aromatics, which has risen by approximately 1,900 yuan per ton since February 28. After experiencing an initial surge, the market entered a short-term correction phase and is currently in a consolidation period, having gone through three stages: the initial surge, correction, and consolidation.

Recently, the average price of National VI 92# gasoline at independent refineries in Shandong was 8,534 yuan per ton, a decrease of 629 yuan per ton, down 6.86% month-on-month. With the continuous decline in gasoline prices, support for aromatics-related products has weakened. Downstream customers have shown clear resistance to high-priced raw materials, leading to a broad decline in prices.

2. Comparative Analysis of Product Price Changes
   The price trends of aromatics-related products from 2025 to 2026 (in yuan per ton) are shown in Figure 1.

3. Analysis of Changes in Market Demand
   The comparison of production and sales rates for aromatics-related products is shown in Figure 2.

In terms of recent production and sales, although the overall market production and sales pace has accelerated since April, this has been accompanied by a continuous decline in the prices of aromatics-related products. Low-priced supplies have been supported by the replenishment of previous short positions, leading to generally acceptable overall transaction volumes in the market. However, as prices showed a slight rebound, production and sales were noticeably suppressed. The overall production and sales rate for April averaged around 50%.

4. Future Outlook
   The trend chart for the spot price of mixed aromatics over the next three months (in yuan per ton) is shown in Figure 3.

In the short term, in the absence of strong fundamental demand support, the refined oil market in Shandong has broken its firm stance amid negative news, with refineries lowering prices to promote sales. End-users and traders have adopted a cautious approach to ordering, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. There remains a possibility of further declines in the international crude oil market, and both market sentiment and demand provide insufficient support for aromatics-related products. These products are likely to continue fluctuating in line with gasoline prices, with the potential for further declines.