Lead: The US-Iran situation has continued to escalate in the near term, with geopolitical conflict and Strait shipping risks repeatedly roiling market sentiment. On September 9, US forces attacked an oil tanker near Iran’s oil export hub; the Jordanian Armed Forces came under missile attack from Iranian territory; Saudi energy and utility facilities were hit by Houthi forces; and Iran’s military issued warnings that it would attack oil tankers docked at Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. The geopolitical risk premium in crude oil rose rapidly. On September 10, Iran announced the establishment of a new maritime “sanctions zone”; combined with midterm election-related statements, mutual US-Iran strikes further strengthened cost-side support. However, considering that the logic of rising supply and weak demand on the industrial side has not fundamentally changed, early trading saw the supply-demand pattern gradually shift toward daily inventory buildup, with cost drivers and fundamental pressures in a continued tug-of-war. Intraday prices fluctuated repeatedly, and spot prices fell at one point. As Middle East friction escalated, the geopolitical situation raised the risk premium, cost and commodity market sentiment improved, and the Fuhai Chuang unit trip caused disruption. The inventory buildup pace eased temporarily; subsequently, strong winds at sea delayed the arrival of imported cargoes, and factories registering warehouse receipts further tightened spot liquidity, pushing up this week’s spot basis. During this period, polyester sales rose in bursts late in the session, Brent broke above $100/bbl, and PTA spot prices continued to rise.
Core logic:
Cost: The US-Iran conflict escalated again. Multiple rounds of fire exchange and rising Strait shipping risks pushed up crude’s geopolitical risk premium. Upstream naphtha and PX followed crude cost fluctuations, with strong costs pressuring the polyester chain. PX plant maintenance and restarts alternated; combined with shipping schedule disruptions, spot liquidity was generally tight, and cost-side market movements switched rapidly with Middle East headlines.
Supply-demand: The periodic increase in polyester sales was mostly attributed to factory promotions amid sharply higher costs driving rigid-demand restocking, rather than a substantive recovery in end-use textile demand. Downstream purchasing was generally cautious, with little willingness to actively restock. Some bottle chip maintenance units returned, but worsening losses in staple fiber and chips forced plants to increase production cut/shutdown plans, with demand support negative. The fundamentals of rising supply and weak demand continue to contend with geopolitical cost drivers.
I. Industrial Profit Distribution: Costs Fluctuate with Geopolitics; Polyester Profits Remain Under Pressure
Affected by rapid geopolitical news-driven disturbances on the crude side, industry chain prices showed volatile upward movement under geopolitical impetus, with naphtha, PX, and PTA prices tracking the upward shift in the crude cost center. As of this week (September 3–9, 2026), industry chain prices rose, with naphtha, PX, and PTA up 1.71%, 3.59%, and 2.77% WoW, respectively. Polyester products were mixed: polyester filament yarn, polyester staple fiber, polyester bottle chips, and polyester chips rose 3.10%, 3.75%, 3.07%, and 4.60% WoW, respectively. In terms of profits, gains remained concentrated upstream. PXN recovered, with the weekly average up 9.32% WoW to $302.33/mt; the PTA processing margin recovered, up 3.68% WoW to 505.50 yuan/mt. Against a high-cost backdrop, profits across polyester products diverged markedly: polyester staple fiber remained loss-making and planned to increase production cuts; polyester bottle chip losses narrowed slightly, but producers maintained output cuts; POY and FDY processing margins for polyester filament compressed, while texturing losses prompted larger production cuts. Overall, high melt costs were not smoothly passed downstream, and downstream polyester plant profits came under broad pressure.
II. Supply Environment: Overall Direction of Supply Recovery Unchanged; Geopolitics, Weather, and Plant Issues Jointly Disrupt Trade Flows
This week’s supply recovery slightly missed expectations: the Fuhai Chuang unit had a short shutdown and the Zhongtai unit reduced load, but the overall direction of supply recovery remained unchanged. The escalation of geopolitical conflict has brought uncertainty to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the flow of feedstock imports; combined with strong winds at sea, this delayed cargo arrivals, further exacerbating the spot circulation situation for PX and PTA. The market continued to focus on refinery utilization and changes in the PX supply-demand pattern brought about by PTA supply recovery. On the basis front, the long-term logic of rising industrial supply and weak demand remained unchanged; spot and cargo prices remained divergent, and main-port contracts continued to trade at high premiums.
III. Demand Environment: Purchasing Mainly for Rigid Needs, No Active Restocking, Lack of Substantive End-Use Recovery
Polyester filament sales showed pulse-like increases but lacked sustainability; inventory buildup trends for finished goods across categories slowed somewhat, while polyester staple fiber sales were relatively weak. During the week, polyester industry capacity utilization fell further, as the sector passively hedged losses and expected inventory buildup pressure through production cuts.
Overall, short-term geopolitical disputes remain the core variable. With continued escalation of the Middle East conflict and risks of Strait shipping disruptions, strong costs will bring stage-wise strongly bullish expectations. The market continues to weigh PTA supply recovery against a tight PX market under geopolitical disruptions. In the medium to long term, the fundamentals of rising industrial supply and weak demand objectively persist; after delivery, some liquidity will be released, while inventory buildup expectations continue to constrain price upside. Continued attention must be paid to geopolitical developments.
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