During the Asian trading session on January 28, the precious metals market once again experienced a frenzy. International spot gold and COMEX gold futures both broke through the $5,200 per ounce mark, setting new all-time highs, with a year-to-date increase of 20%. Silver futures, which had previously shown even stronger performance, continued their upward trend, with New York silver prices rising nearly 8% during the session, challenging the all-time high set earlier this week. Silver has surged over 60% year-to-date, far outpacing gold.
The core drivers of this surge in precious metals prices stem from multiple macroeconomic and industrial factors. The U.S. dollar index fell to a four-year low, coupled with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged and subsequently cut them, providing fundamental support for precious metals. Additionally, sustained gold purchases by global central banks, inflows into ETFs, and the explosive industrial demand for silver in sectors such as photovoltaics, AI computing, and new energy vehicles, combined with global silver inventories hitting a decade-low, have collectively driven the strength in gold and silver prices.
However, behind the price surge, speculative bubbles and market risks continue to accumulate. Domestic and international institutions and regulators have introduced a series of risk control measures to cool the market.
Domestic Market: Institutional Flow Restrictions and Regulatory Intervention
On the domestic front, risk prevention measures have been implemented simultaneously. On January 27, China Merchants Bank announced adjustments to the subscription thresholds for its retail gold account business. Starting February 2, the minimum subscription amount for gold account current and fixed investments will be raised to 1,200 yuan. Existing fixed investment plans will remain unaffected, but new plans must adhere to the new threshold requirements, indirectly curbing speculative activity in the retail sector.
In the public fund sector, high premium risks have prompted institutions to proactively restrict inflows. On the evening of January 26, SDIC UBS Fund announced that its SDIC UBS Silver Futures LOF (Class A) would suspend subscriptions starting January 28 due to a significant premium in the secondary market. As of the close on January 27, the fund’s market price was 4.336 yuan per share, while its net asset value per share was only 2.9694 yuan, representing a premium of 46.02%. As the only public LOF investing in domestic silver futures, the fund has maintained a high premium due to its scarcity, position limits, and compressed arbitrage opportunities. It had previously been temporarily suspended multiple times with risk warnings. The complete suspension of subscriptions aims to mitigate irrational trading risks.
Additionally, regarding rumors about the redemption of the Shenzhen Shuibei gold pre-pricing platform, the Luohu District authorities issued a statement. They noted that the abnormal operations of Shenzhen Jieworui Jewelry Co., Ltd., a local enterprise, had drawn attention. A special task force has been established to intervene, urging the company’s management and core team to remain on duty to facilitate communication, asset assessment, and redemption efforts. The authorities also reminded the public to invest rationally, avoid spreading rumors, and guard against risks in offline gold investments.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange has also introduced multiple measures to curb excessive speculation in precious metals and prevent market overheating.
Overseas Market: Exchange Margin Hikes and Central Bank Controls
Overseas regulators have also taken frequent actions. On January 27 local time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) issued a notice raising margin requirements for certain silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. For some silver contracts, the margin ratio was increased to 11% of the nominal value, with the new standards taking effect after the close on January 28. Gold contracts were not affected. This move aims to squeeze out small and medium-sized speculators by raising collateral requirements, thereby alleviating market volatility pressure. The CME has adjusted precious metals margins multiple times this month, with silver experiencing significant cumulative increases.
In the Southeast Asian market, the Bank of Thailand introduced targeted control measures. The central bank governor stated at a business seminar that, as interest rate cuts cannot solve structural issues, the daily online gold trading limit would be capped at 50 million Thai baht, while short selling of gold would be prohibited. It is reported that overheated gold trading has driven the Thai baht higher, and the new rules aim to ease exchange rate pressure. The Bank of Thailand has initiated exchange rate management and will introduce gray capital control measures next month, forming a multi-dimensional risk prevention system.
Analysts point out that the current precious metals market is significantly driven by sentiment, with policy adjustments and industrial fundamentals gradually taking the lead in determining price trends. In the short term, prices may remain high, but volatility is expected to increase further. Investors should remain vigilant about potential risks arising from high premiums and high leverage.