Golden September Is Coming: Reviewing the Historical Variations of Ethylene Tar's 'Golden September'

1. Historical September Price Performance

As can be seen in the chart above, price movements during the traditional Golden September season varied in past years.

1) Golden September materialized: clear September–October gains (strong years)

• 2017 and 2021: Prices bottomed in August, then rose quickly in September–October—a Golden September rebound.
• 2022: The strongest Golden September. Prices moved straight up after August and surged in September–October, reaching the highest level for that period in recent years—a typical strong Golden September.
• 2023: Prices rose steadily from August to October; September held at high levels and October touched the year’s high—the Golden September logic was fulfilled.

2) Golden September failed: September–October spiked then fell / weakened

• 2020: September–October remained at the year’s lows, with no improvement during the Golden September period—the peak season failed.
• 2024: Prices surged to the highest peak on the chart in August–September, then turned quickly downward after September—a “peak in Golden September, decline in October,” with the market weakening after an early peak-season rally.

3) Range-bound consolidation: no major Golden September move

• 2019 and 2025: Prices fluctuated in a range from August to October, with limited gains and losses and weak peak-season momentum.

Overall, in past traditional Golden September seasons, downstream demand improved and market positives emerged, with active trading pushing prices higher. Looking at historical Golden September and Silver October curves, September–October market performance has clearly diverged. In 2021–2023, the Golden September peak-season logic materialized and prices rose in stages; in 2024, prices surged in September then fell quickly, with the market weakening after the peak-season positive was realized; in some years, peak-season momentum was insufficient and prices consolidated in a range. For 2026, current prices are at a medium level relative to the same period historically. Going forward, the key is whether actual downstream demand can be released. If demand follows through, the market may replicate the upward moves of previous years; if demand follow-through is weak, the possibility of a peak-season spike followed by a pullback cannot be ruled out.

2. Ethylene Tar Unit Operating Status

On the supply side, according to Chempricehub statistics, two cracking units at Yangzi Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical are scheduled for maintenance in September. As a result, external sales of ethylene tar may decline. In addition, close attention should be paid to changes in the overall operating load of domestic ethylene cracking units. With crude oil at high levels, refineries tend to use lighter feedstocks, which will also disrupt ethylene tar supply.

3. Market Sentiment

To date, a survey of domestic ethylene tar market participants on future market direction shows that for September, 22% of companies hold a bearish view, 42% are bullish, and 36% expect the market to remain stable. The bullish logic mainly focuses on high crude oil prices, cost support from tight high-temperature coal tar supply, and the expectation that downstream demand will recover during the traditional “Golden September” peak season, all of which provide upward momentum for ethylene tar prices. Bearish companies say that global economic and end-user demand prospects remain uncertain, downstream actual demand improvement is limited, and there is insufficient upward support in the market. Those holding a stable view believe that current bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and offset each other, and ethylene tar prices are expected to be broadly stable.

4. Summary

Overall, the bull-bear tug-of-war in ethylene tar will continue in September. On the supply side, maintenance at Yangzi Petrochemical and Hainan Refining & Chemical is expected to reduce supply, while high crude oil prices and tight high-temperature coal tar supply provide support through relative-price and substitution effects. Market bottom support is strong, and refineries have a clear price-supporting stance. However, downstream carbon black and coating pitch end-market profitability and orders are weak, and buyers are cautious about accepting high-priced feedstock, mainly executing essential-demand long-term contracts. Concentrated restocking is insufficient, which will clearly constrain upside room. In September, the market is expected to fluctuate at high levels with a firm, range-bound tone; some localized modest upward pushes are possible, but a sharp unilateral rally is unlikely. If coal tar strengthens further and downstream stockpiling demand expands materially, the market may break upward; if peak-season demand continues to miss expectations and transaction follow-through is weak, a post-high pullback under pressure cannot be ruled out. Going forward, the key factors to track are coal tar price trends, the implementation progress of cracking-unit maintenance, and actual downstream offtake strength in carbon black and other sectors.

In September overall, the market is likely to fluctuate at high levels with a firm tone. Bottom support is clear, but resistance to a large unilateral rally is significant, and the upside depends on the actual realization of downstream demand. This is a differentiated Golden September in which supply and substitutes underpin the market while demand caps the high—closer to the steady upward probing of 2023 rather than the unilateral surge of 2022. If demand remains slow to follow, there is a risk of replicating the 2024 pattern of a peak-season spike followed by a decline.