Introduction: In the first half of 2026, the domestic unsaturated polyester resin market experienced a sharp rise followed by a significant decline, against a backdrop of weakening downstream demand and volatile raw material prices that initially increased before falling. The primary driver for the resin price increase was the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which introduced multiple uncertainties to regional energy supply, shipping channels, and the chemical industry's operations. This, in turn, triggered a notable surge in the prices of key raw materials such as styrene, maleic anhydride, phthalic anhydride, and diethylene glycol. With strong cost-side support, the profitability of the unsaturated polyester resin industry followed a "high-then-low" trajectory, with overall profit margins gradually narrowing. During the period of sharp raw material price increases, the resin industry even experienced losses.
In the first half of the year, the domestic unsaturated polyester resin market price showed a pattern of first rising, then falling, and finally turning to consolidation. The trend can be divided into two phases:
In the first quarter, buoyed by substantial cost-side increases, the market evolved from a "structurally tight" state into a deadlock where prices were high but trading volumes were low. Driven by cost-push factors and bullish sentiment, resin prices rose rapidly in the short term, and market trading activity was temporarily lively. Downstream companies engaged in phased replenishment, and transactions steadily recovered, pushing unsaturated polyester resin prices higher. After the Chinese New Year holiday, the resumption of operations in downstream and end-user sectors gradually led to a tight supply-demand balance, further supporting price increases. However, as prices continuously hit new historical highs, downstream end-use industries, such as stone processing, fell into widespread losses due to intensified cost pressure. Some companies were forced to cut or halt production, leading to a significant contraction in demand. Ultimately, the inhibitory effect of high prices on actual transactions gradually became apparent, and market activity cooled. According to data from Chempricehub, as of the end of March 2026, the closing price for 196# grade unsaturated polyester resin in the East China market was 10,600 RMB/ton, a 15.05% increase compared to the end of March 2025.
In the second quarter, the domestic unsaturated polyester resin market entered a phase of downward exploration. Starting in April, the positive factors from the earlier price increases gradually transmitted, pushing market prices slightly higher. However, against the backdrop of continuous price rises, downstream companies showed low willingness to accept high prices. This hampered the transmission of high prices, increasing the pressure to sell. Combined with over-selling by some resin factories in March, prices began to fall. From May to June, as the international situation eased somewhat and external factors like falling crude oil prices emerged, raw material prices continued to decline. The cost-side support weakened significantly, market sentiment turned markedly bearish, and unsaturated polyester resin market prices kept falling. Concurrently, with the arrival of the traditional off-season (high summer temperatures), end-users maintained a just-in-time, low-price procurement strategy. Supply-demand conflicts intensified, inventory pressure at resin factories rose significantly, forcing them to adopt price-cutting strategies to maintain sales volume. Industry sentiment was predominantly bearish, and market prices continued to test lows. As of July 7, the reference price for 196# grade in the Jiangsu region was 9,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of 15.15% from the end of the first quarter.
The divergence between upstream raw material prices, which rose and then weakened, and unsaturated polyester resin product prices acted as the direct driver for industry profits hitting new lows in the first half of the year.
The profit level for the domestic unsaturated polyester resin industry in the first half of 2026 showed a pattern of being high initially and low later. This was mainly because the initial high raw material prices, which later fell, influenced the resin's price trajectory of rising first and then falling. The average industry profit for domestic unsaturated polyester resin in H1 2026 was 286 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 439 RMB/ton, or a sharp decline of 60.55% compared to the same period last year. The highest average monthly profit occurred in February, reaching 487 RMB/ton, while the lowest was in March, around 46 RMB/ton, resulting in a profit gap of 441 RMB/ton.
According to Chempricehub monitoring, during the first half of 2026, the average gross profit for the domestic unsaturated polyester resin industry was 286 RMB/ton, down 60.55% year-on-year and down 51.69% quarter-on-quarter. This level was significantly lower than the same periods in 2023, 2024, and 2025, officially entering a profit trough for the past five years. In the first quarter, the industry's average gross margin had already dropped to 264 RMB/ton, a sequential decline of 59.26%. Entering the second quarter, as the price spread between upstream and downstream gradually narrowed, the profitability of the unsaturated polyester resin industry improved somewhat, with the average recovering to 306 RMB/ton. Despite persistent pressure on profits, this product remained one of the few varieties in the unsaturated polyester resin chain to maintain profitability.
As a core raw material for unsaturated polyester resin, styrene showed a rise-then-fall trend in the first half of 2026. Styrene production capacity expanded slightly during this period, exacerbating the oversupply situation. Prices oscillated within a narrow range at the beginning of the year. Subsequently, due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, prices were pulled up rapidly. Afterward, the market returned to supply-demand logic, and prices continued to decline with fluctuations, pulling down the production costs of unsaturated polyester resin. Meanwhile, unsaturated polyester resin prices remained relatively firm against a generally loose supply-demand backdrop, with a significantly smaller decline compared to the raw material side. The current divergence in upstream and downstream trends directly facilitated the gradual recovery of production profits for unsaturated polyester resin.
In the short term (July), prices of raw materials like styrene are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern, providing some support from the cost side and making a sharp price decline unlikely in the short term. However, demand for unsaturated polyester resin remains weak, and there are still capacity expansion plans on the supply side for the second half of the year. This suggests there could still be room for a slight downward adjustment in prices, with the overall impact from the cost side being limited. As the supply-demand contradiction for unsaturated polyester resin continues to widen, prices may trend further downward, but industry profits could see a modest recovery.
Overall, the significant decline in profits for the unsaturated polyester resin industry in the first half of 2026 is an inevitable result of the industry's cyclical evolution. The dividends from the earlier phase of rapid capacity expansion have been largely absorbed. As capacity expansion enters a lull period, coupled with shrinking demand, industry profitability has notably declined.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the trend of capacity expansion is expected to continue, making it difficult to break the loose supply-demand pattern. However, attention must be paid to the impact of upstream raw material price fluctuations, the pace of domestic plant startups, and the demand downturn during the low season. In the medium to long term, with the upcoming release of a new wave of capacity around the end of 2027, the current profit down-cycle is expected to last until the second quarter of 2027. The industry will maintain relatively stable profit levels amidst a supply-demand rebalancing process.
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