On March 16, Cuba once again plunged into a nationwide blackout. The national power grid of this Caribbean island nation, with a population of approximately 11 million, was "completely disconnected" on that day. By the evening of the 16th, only 2% of residents in Havana (about 18,000 users) and some hospitals had their power restored.

This marks the third large-scale power outage in Cuba in the past four months. For this country, which has long been mired in economic difficulties, power outages are no longer occasional incidents but are gradually evolving into a systemic energy crisis triggered by fuel shortages, aging equipment, and external political pressure.

The crisis Cuba is currently facing has also extended beyond the energy sector. According to The New York Times, on the same day as the island-wide blackout in Cuba, U.S. President Donald Trump made shocking remarks to reporters at the White House. "I believe I will... have the honor of taking over Cuba," Trump said. "Whether it's 'liberating' it or occupying it—I think I can do whatever I want with it. They are a very weak country right now."

Power Shortfall Exceeds 2,000 Megawatts, Blockade Becomes Crisis Trigger

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Cuban Electric Union (UNE) reported on the 16th that the national power system experienced a complete blackout and that power restoration procedures had been initiated.

By the evening of the blackout, official media stated that only about 2% of residents in Havana (approximately 18,000 users) and some hospitals had their power restored. Cuban officials indicated that the next step would be to prioritize restoring power to the communications sector but warned that the small-scale lines already restored could experience further interruptions.

Previously, according to the power operation report released by the state-owned Cuban Electric Union on March 2, the national peak demand in the evening was projected to be 3,180 megawatts, while the available generating capacity was only 1,185 megawatts, resulting in an estimated power shortfall of 1,995 megawatts. If the situation persisted, the actual impact could rise to 2,025 megawatts.

To prevent the complete destabilization of the power grid, authorities had no choice but to implement rolling blackouts nationwide, with some areas experiencing power outages for up to 20 hours a day. The report stated that 8 of Cuba's 16 thermal power plants were out of operation due to malfunctions or fuel shortages. These aging power plants, which rely on domestic and imported crude oil, have long been regarded by outsiders as typical examples of "high failure rates, low maintenance, and low efficiency." As key units frequently go offline, Cuba's power grid has almost lost sufficient backup capacity, and any local failure could escalate into a nationwide collapse.

Cuban officials attributed the nationwide blackout to the crisis exacerbated by U.S. sanctions. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated last Friday that the island had not received any external oil supplies for over three consecutive months and was currently relying solely on solar power, natural gas, and domestic thermal power plants to maintain operations. The government has been forced to postpone tens of thousands of surgeries.

In the official Cuban narrative, the intensifying U.S. sanctions and "energy blockade" are the direct causes of the worsening crisis. The Trump administration warned in January of this year that any country selling or providing oil to Cuba would face tariff pressures, further constricting the already fragile fuel import channels. Cuba described this as "energy strangulation" against the country.

For a country that still heavily relies on oil-fired thermal power, the cutoff of oil supplies means that many units cannot maintain stable operations even without technical failures. Fuel shortages not only weaken generating capacity but also make it difficult for distributed diesel units and emergency power sources to provide effective support, further reducing the power grid's resilience to risks.

However, attributing Cuba's power outage crisis solely to external blockades fails to explain why a transmission or local power supply issue repeatedly escalates into nationwide darkness.

According to NPR, William LeoGrande, a U.S. university professor who has long studied Cuban affairs, analyzed that Cuba's power grid has long lacked proper maintenance, with infrastructure "far exceeding its normal service life." The government also lacks sufficient hard currency to import spare parts, making it unable to upgrade thermal power plants or renovate the grid itself.

"This is a perfect storm of collapse," LeoGrande noted. Although Cuba produces 40% of its own oil and has always generated its own electricity, this is no longer sufficient to meet demand as the power grid continues to collapse. Thermal power plants have been using heavy oil, and the sulfur content further corrodes the equipment.

José Luis Reyes, an analyst specializing in Cuba's power system, also stated that the state of Cuba's power system in early 2026 is worse than it was in the same period in 2025: thermal power plants frequently start and stop, oil is scarce, and diesel and fuel oil required for distributed generation will also be very limited. "The fragile network of energy production and distribution relies on various unpredictable factors. Power outages are inevitable."

Independent experts estimate that Cuba would need an investment of $8 to $10 billion to restore and modernize its national power grid. For Cuba, whose economy has contracted by more than 15% cumulatively since 2020, this is almost an impossible amount to bear independently.

Political Pressure and Engagement Negotiations Proceed in Parallel, Havana's Position Becomes More Delicate

As the energy crisis worsens sharply, the political maneuvering between the U.S. and Cuba over Cuba's future direction is also heating up.

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing the Cuban news website "Cubadebate" on March 13, Díaz-Canel stated that Cuban officials had recently held talks with representatives of the U.S. government. At the same time, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, Cuba's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment, said that Cuba is open to trade with U.S. companies and is advancing a series of new measures in an attempt to boost the economy.

These measures include: allowing Cubans living abroad to become partners or owners of Cuban private enterprises and participate in large-scale projects, including infrastructure construction; allowing them to establish commercial ties with Cuban state-owned and private entities; and permitting the opening of foreign currency accounts in Cuban banks to facilitate investment and transactions.

For Cuba, which is running out of funds and whose infrastructure is on the verge of collapse, these policy adjustments are seen as rare signals of relaxation and reflect Havana's attempt to find new channels for economic transfusion without touching political red lines.

However, Cuba has consistently rejected any external demands to interfere in its internal affairs. Díaz-Canel emphasized the hope that engagement with the U.S. would proceed "on the basis of equality and respect for the political systems, sovereignty, and self-determination principles of both countries."

Meanwhile, The New York Times reported on the 16th, citing four anonymous sources familiar with the talks, that while U.S. and Cuban officials were negotiating, the Trump administration was attempting to oust Cuban President Díaz-Canel but might leave the next steps to Cuba itself.

Since the U.S. seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January of this year, the U.S. has been trying to increase pressure on Cuba, its long-time adversary. Trump cut off Venezuela's oil supplies to Cuba and threatened to impose tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba.

The energy crisis Cuba is currently experiencing is no longer simply a matter of "lack of electricity." Rather, it is the reality of a country that has long relied on an old system to maintain operations gradually approaching its systemic limits under the impact of geopolitics and economic hemorrhage.