How does China's sodium cyanide capacity expansion align with sodium-ion battery demand growth?

How does China's sodium cyanide capacity expansion align with sodium-ion battery demand growth?
China's sodium cyanide supply is structurally ample. Domestic liquid capacity (30% basis) stands at 1.72 million tonnes and solid capacity (98% basis) at 158,600 tonnes, equivalent to 672,200 tonnes on a 100% NaCN basis. This far exceeds projected downstream needs, including the emerging Prussian blue cathode route for sodium-ion batteries. Under a bullish scenario, 2026 demand for sodium ferrocyanide—the key derivative—is estimated at 212,800 tonnes, while total sodium cyanide consumption would reach only 286,100 tonnes. The bottleneck is not raw material availability but technology selection and project execution. Producers should focus on cost competitiveness and logistics rather than capacity expansion, as oversupply will persist for years.