How has China's export control on bismuth reshaped the trade and pricing of bismuth oxide?

How has China's export control on bismuth reshaped the trade and pricing of bismuth oxide?
China's February 2025 export controls on refined bismuth (4N+) triggered a dramatic market shift. Refined bismuth exports plunged 81% from 3,797 tons in 2024 to 714 tons in 2025, while bismuth oxide exports actually rose 9% to 9,267 tons, as exporters converted shipments into the uncontrolled oxide form. Domestic refined bismuth prices surged from 72,500 yuan/ton at end-2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by March 2025, settling near 146,000 yuan/ton by mid-2026. European spot prices jumped from about $6/lb to $18/lb. However, high-purity 7N bismuth remains effectively cut off to Japan, a gap oxide cannot fill. The global market is in tight balance, with China still supplying roughly 80% of world refined bismuth output.