How long will it take the US to build its own rare earth supply chain for praseodymium oxide?

How long will it take the US to build its own rare earth supply chain for praseodymium oxide?
US efforts to rebuild rare earth independence remain heavily concentrated in MP Materials, which restarted separation in Q3 2023 and produced 1,294 tons of NdPr oxide in 2024, with a target of 6,000 tons per year. The company's Mountain Pass mine holds over 1.7 million tons of TREO at a high 6.2% grade, giving it a cost advantage. However, the US still lacks a complete downstream chain, and its magnet plant in Texas is only slated for 1,000 tons per year initially, scaling to 10,000 tons by 2028. The Pentagon has guaranteed a minimum price of $110/kg for NdPr, double the Chinese market price, underscoring the strategic premium placed on domestic supply. Yet even with this support, US output remains a fraction of Chinese capacity, and the 2027 target for eliminating Chinese dependence looks unrealistic given that overseas separation projects mostly come online between 2027 and 2029.