How long will it take the US to solve rare earth refining technology for neodymium oxide?

How long will it take the US to solve rare earth refining technology for neodymium oxide?
US efforts are advancing but remain far from meaningful scale. MP Materials produced 1,300 tonnes of neodymium oxide in 2024 and claims it will make 1,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets by end-2025. For context, China produced 300,000 tonnes of such magnets in 2024. Other projects are even smaller: ReElement Technologies plans 1,500 tonnes of neodymium oxide in 2025, just 5% of a top Chinese firm. Laboratory breakthroughs like algae-based extraction showing 80% selectivity for praseodymium and neodymium, or supercritical CO2 extraction from coal ash at 98% purity, remain at bench scale. The US Department of Defense is funding these efforts, but scaling from lab to production line typically takes years and faces efficiency drops and equipment corrosion issues that lab data does not capture.