I. Review of n-Butanol Price Trends in 2025

According to data from the Business Society monitoring system, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong experienced overall volatile and declining trends throughout 2025. On January 1, 2025, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong was approximately 7,116 RMB/ton, while on December 31, 2025, it dropped to around 5,633 RMB/ton, representing a yearly decline of 20.84%.

The Business Society data monitoring chart indicates that from January to December 2025, the n-butanol market followed a trend of "starting high, declining later, and showing a weak rebound at year-end."

From January to June 2025, the n-butanol market fluctuated within a range, with prices hovering around 7,100–7,200 RMB/ton. Starting in March, the market experienced a sharp decline. By May and June, there was a slight recovery, but the momentum was insufficient. Overall, n-butanol prices fell by 8.9% in the first half of 2025.

In the second half of 2025, the decline in n-butanol prices intensified, with low prices approaching 5,000 RMB/ton. On August 8, the price fell below the 6,000 RMB/ton mark, followed by a minor rebound. However, due to insufficient sustained support, prices declined again. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" failed to boost the market, leading to a continued downward trend. On November 20, n-butanol prices hit the yearly low, approaching the 5,000 RMB/ton threshold at 5,066 RMB/ton, marking a decline of over 21% for the year. Subsequently, the market saw a slight rebound, but the upward momentum remained limited. The annual price range was between 5,150 and 5,850 RMB/ton.

II. Analysis of Factors Influencing n-Butanol Market Trends in 2025

• Raw Materials and Cost Side:
Fluctuations in propylene prices were the core driver. In 2025, propylene market prices fluctuated between 7,100 and 5,900 RMB/ton. From year-end to the beginning of the year, propylene prices declined significantly, with accelerated declines in October and November. This directly weakened cost support for n-butanol, pushing prices to yearly lows with insufficient effective market support.

• Supply and Demand Side:
Throughout 2025, the n-butanol market largely exhibited a "supply exceeding demand" trend. Overall operating rates remained relatively high, ensuring ample supply. In the first half of the year, downstream industries such as coatings and plasticizers were in peak demand season, allowing for reasonable transmission of supply. As a result, the decline in n-butanol prices was limited. However, in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, downstream demand entered a off-season. Downstream enterprises focused on digesting existing inventories, leading to reduced procurement enthusiasm, cautious new order placements, and inquiries concentrated at lower price points. Consequently, demand-side support gradually weakened, resulting in significant price declines.

• Policies and Processes:
The "Carbon Peaking Implementation Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry" imposed constraints on coal-based production units, increasing carbon costs and forcing some high-carbon capacity to reduce output. In contrast, green process units maintained stable supply due to policy advantages, influencing the market's supply-demand structure.

III. Outlook and Forecast for the n-Butanol Industry in 2026

(1) Capacity Forecast: Structural Expansion Continues, Concentration Further Increases
From 2018 to 2023, China's n-butanol capacity maintained steady growth. In 2024, new n-butanol capacity accelerated, and 2025 continued to see new capacity releases. In 2025, the domestic n-butanol industry exhibited characteristics of "structural expansion + clearance of inefficient capacity," with total capacity reaching approximately 4.03 million tons/year, a 10.10% increase compared to 2024.

In 2026, China is expected to continue releasing new n-butanol and octanol capacity, involving projects such as Fujian Zhongjing Petrochemical's 304,000-ton n-butanol unit, Taizhou Xinpu Chemical's 236,000-ton n-butanol unit, and Guangxi Huayi's 320,000-ton butanol-octanol unit.

In terms of regional distribution, East China remained the core production area in 2025, with Shandong and Jiangsu accounting for over 65% of total capacity due to integrated advantages and port facilities. South China and western regions had relatively smaller shares.

(2) Supply-Demand Pattern Forecast: Demand Growth Outpaces Supply, Structural Gaps Emerge
• Supply Side:
In 2026, overall n-butanol supply is expected to increase. However, due to stricter environmental regulations, some small and medium-sized capacity may face periodic production restrictions, affecting local supply in the short term. Additionally, carbon cost pressures and fluctuations in coal-based unit operating rates are expected to keep capacity utilization around 86%, with overall supply growth remaining moderate and controllable.

• Demand Side:
In 2026, n-butanol demand is also expected to increase. In traditional sectors, water-based coatings and plasticizers will provide stable demand support. Emerging sectors are poised for explosive growth, with increasing demand for n-butanol in electric vehicle battery materials, biodegradable plastics, and semiconductor-grade electronic n-butanol. Emerging sectors will become the core growth drivers for n-butanol demand in 2026.

Overall, demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth in 2026, shifting the industry from "supply-demand balance" to "structural tight balance." Local supply gaps may emerge during peak demand seasons in the second and third quarters.

(3) Production Forecast: Output Increases with Supply and Demand
Given expanding supply-side capacity and growing demand from emerging sectors, China's n-butanol production is expected to increase moderately in 2026. Historically, domestic n-butanol production has fluctuated within a range. In 2024, concentrated capacity releases drove overall production growth. In 2025, new capacity continued to come online, with estimated production reaching approximately 2.97 million tons. In 2026, driven by capacity expansion and demand growth, n-butanol production is expected to exceed 3.3 million tons.

(4) Export Forecast: Export Market Expected to Expand Again
In recent years, China's n-butanol exports have remained minimal, not exceeding 30,000 tons. Since 2022, exports have declined, with only 3,700 tons in 2023, an 83.33% year-on-year decrease. In 2024, n-butanol exports increased slightly but declined again in 2025, with January–October exports totaling 11,700 tons. This decline reflects overall loose demand conditions.

Currently, markets in Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe, such as Vietnam, India, and Turkey, exhibit strong demand. Therefore, China's n-butanol exports are expected to grow again in 2026.

(5) Price Trend Forecast: Bottoming Out First, Then Rising, with an Upward Shift in the Price Center
Based on Business Society data and industry fundamentals, n-butanol prices in 2026 are expected to follow a trend of "bottoming out in Q1, rising from Q2, and maintaining high levels in the second half of the year." The annual price center is projected to shift upward by 5%–8% compared to 2025, with a core trading range of 5,400–6,200 RMB/ton.

• Q1: Continuing the weak trend from late 2025, downstream demand remains in the off-season, with subdued market trading. Prices are expected to bottom out in the range of 5,400–5,600 RMB/ton, primarily due to insufficient pre-holiday stocking demand and ample supply.

• Q2: As downstream industries such as coatings and plastics enter peak production seasons, coupled with growing demand from new energy materials, demand-side support will strengthen. Meanwhile, propylene prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, driving n-butanol prices above 5,800 RMB/ton and toward the 6,000 RMB/ton range.

• Second Half of the Year: The tight supply-demand balance will become more pronounced, with green process premiums increasing and export demand growing. Prices are expected to remain high in the range of 5,900–6,200 RMB/ton. If propylene supply disruptions or extreme weather affect logistics, prices could exceed 6,500 RMB/ton.

IV. Summary
In 2025, the n-butanol industry operated under volatility driven by capacity optimization, demand upgrades, and policy guidance. Prices exhibited weak declines and periodic adjustments due to supply-demand dynamics and raw material fluctuations.

In 2026, the industry will enter a "high-quality growth" phase, with increasing capacity concentration, demand structure upgrades, and green transformation as core themes. Tight supply-demand balance will drive an upward shift in the price center, while emerging sectors and export markets will become key growth engines.

Enterprises should focus on green process upgrades, high-end product development, and regional layout optimization to navigate market volatility and policy changes, seizing development opportunities arising from industry transformation.