The China market for chloromethane in 2025 showed a fluctuating downward trend, with a minor "tail wind" rebound towards the end of the year. In January and February of the first half of the year, due to partial plant maintenance and tight supply from downstream enterprises restarting their quotas, demand was short-term and concentrated, driving the price up to 2800 yuan/ton. From March to July, on one hand, new capacity was gradually released, while core downstream refrigerant R22 demand continued to weaken, leading to increased supply pressure, resulting in high inventory levels in companies, causing the price to fall to the lowest point within the year at 1533 yuan/ton. From August to October, on one hand, the cost of methanol raw material prices weakened, and the cost support for chloromethane collapsed; on the other hand, downstream demand was weak, leading to a price that was weak and downward. During this period, partial plant maintenance temporarily eased supply pressure, to some extent alleviating the pressure on price decline. From November to December, regional supply tightened, companies had low inventory levels, and the release of demand at the end of the year helped drive prices to a slight rebound near 1966 yuan/ton.
The fluctuations in chloromethane prices in 2025 were mainly influenced by the following factors:

1. The continuous increase in supply pressure: In 2025, new capacities were introduced into the industry, which resulted in an overall increase in supply level. As an important "chlorine-consuming" product, even when methane chloride units are operating at a loss, they maintain a relatively high operating rate, exacerbating the situation of oversupply. Hunan Hongyan Jindong Technology Co., Ltd.'s first phase of 200,000 tons per day methane chloride unit started operation in late March 2025 and achieved stable operation in October 2025. The average operational rate of methane chloride units in China for 2025 was around 78%, with large-scale maintenance periods occurring during Q1 and Q4, and higher operation rates in the second and third quarters, peak seasons.
2. The single structure and weakness of downstream demand: More than 90% of chloromethane demand is dependent on R22 as a refrigerant. However, in 2025, R22 quotas were reduced, and its terminal demand (such as polytetrafluoroethylene) performed poorly, leading to weak purchasing support for raw materials like chloromethane.
3. Cost and loss constraints: The bottom line is determined by "cost": When the price of chloromethane falls below the "cost of methanol plus manufacturing costs," uncompetitive enterprises will be forced into losses and production cuts or halts, providing a rigid bottom support for prices. Looking at the overall trend of chloromethane prices in 2025, prices fell to about 1533 yuan/ton in June and July, which has reached this bottom line. Overall, when demand is good, cost fluctuations can effectively transmit to sales prices. When demand is severely deficient, only cost can define the bottom of price decline and the depth of loss, unable to drive a trend of price increase.
   Looking ahead to 2026, the market outlook for chloromethane is expected to remain under pressure, unlikely to see significant trends in price increases: On the supply side: The pattern of overcapacity will continue in 2026. The small increase in methane chloride capacity in 2025 did not result in many new units being added, with only Gansu Juhua New Material Co., Ltd.'s 760,000 tons per year methane chloride unit awaiting construction. The production volume of chloromethane in 2026 is expected to be around 1.05-1.1 million tons, with an operating rate of 70-75%. The overall supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side: The core downstream refrigerant R22 quotas will continue to be cut, demand will decrease by 3-5%, and its growth potential is limited, which will continue to be a key factor constraining the market for chloromethane. Growth in demand will rely more on refined chemical fields such as perfluoropolymers (PFPE), fourth-generation refrigerants (HFOs), and pharmaceutical and agricultural pesticide intermediates. Price trends: Under the expectation of abundant supply, the overall price center may not be significantly raised in 2026, likely continuing to fluctuate at a low level. Its fluctuation range will be affected by specific factors such as changes in raw material methanol and liquid chlorine costs and periodic restocking demand by downstream segments. In summary, the price bottom line for chloromethane in 2026 will still be constrained by cost, with the price center for methanol expected to be around 2100-2300 yuan/ton in 2026 and liquid chlorine prices expected to be between 50-250 yuan/ton, supporting the bottom line for chloromethane through its cost. Additionally, influenced by supply and maintenance checks, it is estimated that the price for chloromethane in 2026 will fluctuate within a range of 1800-2300 yuan/ton.