In the first half of 2026, China's phenol import concentration remained high, registering a year-on-year decrease of 5.73%.

[Lead]: In the first half of 2026, China's phenol imports totaled 143,100 tonnes, down 8,700 tonnes from the same period in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.73%. The main reasons for the import fluctuation are as follows: contracted volumes from nearby regions decreased in 2026, with Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan basically exiting the import source list in the first half of the year, while Thailand's contract supply also remained unstable. In Saudi Arabia, the phenol/acetone units saw no shutdown activity, and long-haul contracts supplied steadily.

Table 1 Comparison of Phenol Imports in H1 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

Source: Chempricehub Information

Exploring Changes in Major Importing Countries and Regions of China's Phenol

During 2021–2025, the concentration of China's phenol import sources by country and region further strengthened, with Saudi Arabia firmly holding the top position. As China's phenol capacity continued to expand, contract operations from nearby regions showed a year-by-year downtrend. In 2024, affected by economic factors, South Korea shifted from being a major import source for China to a major export destination.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of 2026, China's phenol imports came mainly from Saudi Arabia and Thailand, together accounting for nearly 100%. Imports from other countries and regions were extremely negligible. Within the year, Saudi Arabia's phenol/acetone units had no scheduled maintenance, and contract cargoes arrived steadily on a monthly basis, keeping Saudi Arabia firmly in the leading import source position, with imports accounting for more than 90% of the total in the first half.

Examining the Operational Direction of Imported Cargo via Phenol Import Trade Patterns

Domestic phenol imports are mainly conducted under general trade and goods entering and leaving bonded supervision sites, and from 2021 to 2025, the combined share of these two patterns fluctuated in the range of 63%–78%. Operations involving goods entering and leaving bonded supervision sites were mostly concentrated in the coastal East China region. General trade import operations showed an overall year-on-year downward trend. In 2025, the volume of logistics goods under customs special supervision zones increased slightly, while import operations under import processing trade declined.

According to customs data, in the first half of 2026, China's phenol imports were mostly conducted under the trade pattern of goods entering and leaving bonded supervision sites, with imports of 68,200 tonnes, accounting for 47.64%. This was followed by logistics goods under customs special supervision zones, accounting for 36.67%. General trade ranked third, with an import share of 15.69%.

Forecast of China's Phenol Import Volume Trends in H2

In the second half of 2026, China's new phenol capacity is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes, but commissioning is expected to occur near the end of the year. Given the uncertainty of the new unit commissioning schedule, capacity release still needs to be monitored. Planned maintenance shutdowns for domestic phenol/acetone units in the second half are understood to be limited, so the production loss from shutdowns is expected to be less than in the first half. Domestic supply will show an increasing trend. Imports will mainly be supplemented by long-haul contracts from Saudi Arabia, while short-haul contract volumes will be limited. Monthly average imports are expected to fluctuate around 20,000 tonnes. At present, August import vessel schedules have not yet been tracked, and delays are possible. Therefore, when tracking changes in import contracts, it is necessary to monitor external environment changes, domestic and overseas phenol/acetone unit operating rates, and price dynamics, and to watch for unusual movements in imports. It cannot be ruled out that import volumes may decline from the current forecast.