Market Overview: Prices Continue Downward Trend

According to monitoring by the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of January 16, the average domestic price of industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate (DMC) was 3,976 yuan per ton, down 3.1% from the beginning of the month. Under the combined effects of sustained supply pressure, weak demand, and ineffective cost support transmission, the market has continued its downward trend since December.

The market fluctuations are primarily driven by the following factors:

1. Supply-Demand Imbalance as the Main Theme

   • Adequate Supply: Stable operations at major producers and sufficient spot supply in the market are the primary reasons for the price decline.
   • Cautious Demand: Downstream industries such as polycarbonate and electrolyte solvents maintain stable production. However, as the traditional off-season approaches, market participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only as needed, providing limited support to the market.

2. Ineffective Cost Support Transmission

   • Prices of key raw materials, such as propylene oxide and methanol, remain relatively strong. However, under the dominance of oversupply and weak demand, cost factors only provide a floor for prices.

Outlook:
Overall, the dimethyl carbonate market is expected to face a tug-of-war between "cost support" and "supply-demand pressure" in the short term:

• Upside Resistance: Market supply remains ample, while demand enters the off-season, making it difficult to drive prices higher.
• Downside Support: Prices of key raw materials remain strong, keeping production costs elevated and limiting the room for significant price declines.

Forecast:
As pre-holiday terminal stockpiling nears completion before the Spring Festival, supply pressure is unlikely to ease. Prices are expected to remain weak, with attention focused on cost dynamics and potential maintenance shutdowns at production facilities.