The price trend shows a gradual downward shift in the mainstream production areas. According to monitoring by the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of January 16, the average price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region was reported at 1,026 yuan per ton, representing a decrease of 1.08% compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
The core contradiction in the current market is "cost support exists, but demand lags behind," leading to a dual squeeze on both prices and profits.

1. Loose Supply
   The overall industry operating rate is not high, but due to weaker demand, spot market supply remains ample.

2. Weak Demand (Core Drag)

   • Drag from the Board Industry: The largest downstream sector of formaldehyde, the artificial board industry, is experiencing sustained contraction in demand due to factors such as the real estate market, high raw material costs, and intense industry competition. This has led to only rigid procurement of formaldehyde.
   • Self-Consumption in Other Downstream Sectors: Fine chemical downstream sectors such as methylal and urotropine are facing poor profitability and primarily rely on consuming their supporting formaldehyde, resulting in minimal external purchasing demand.

3. Ineffective Cost Transmission
   Expectations of reduced methanol imports, combined with significant destocking at ports, have driven up methanol prices. As of January 16, the Business Society methanol benchmark price was 2,250.83 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.96% compared to the beginning of the month. However, this cost increase has not been effectively transmitted to formaldehyde selling prices due to poor downstream acceptance. To control inventory, factories have been forced to offer discounts for shipments.

Short-Term Outlook
In the short term, the formaldehyde market is expected to maintain a pattern of "weak stability and stalemate." Rising costs limit the downside, but weak demand and factory inventory pressures further suppress any potential for price increases. The key to breaking the deadlock lies in whether downstream board industry operations and stockpiling activities show unexpectedly positive improvements.