In April, the MMA market experienced a weak decline after a period of high-level consolidation. In mid-month, holders showed clear intentions to sell, yet prices remained high. Poor cost transmission downstream weakened purchasing motivation, and coupled with limited new export orders, the negotiation focus steadily dropped. As of April 28, the negotiation range in the East China market stood at 12,300-12,500 yuan/ton.

I. MMA Market: Rapid Decline After High-Level Consolidation in April

Table 1: MMA Price Changes for This Period (Unit: yuan/ton)

| Region | Average Price This Period | Average Price Previous Period | Same Period Last Year | MoM | YoY |
|--------|--------------------------|------------------------------|-----------------------|-----|-----|
| East China | 14,242 | 13,294 | 10,508 | 7.13% | 35.53% |
| Shandong | 14,032 | 13,164 | 10,358 | 6.59% | 35.47% |
| South China | 14,937 | 14,223 | 11,198 | 5.02% | 33.39% |

Source: chempricehub

In April, the average price of the domestic MMA market rose, but showed a trend of weak decline after high-level stalemate. At the beginning of the month, maintenance at some plants in East and South China, combined with contract deliveries and previous export orders, kept MMA prices high. Approaching mid-month, due to poor downstream purchasing enthusiasm and insufficient export support, prices began to fall, a trend that continued until the end of the month. During this period, the 'buy on rising, not on falling' mentality persisted. Low-priced goods frequently appeared, market quotes were somewhat chaotic, and actual transactions were primarily for immediate needs.

As of the 28th, the monthly average prices in the East China, Shandong, and South China markets were 14,242 yuan/ton, 14,032 yuan/ton, and 14,937 yuan/ton respectively, up 7.13%, 6.59%, and 5.02% month-on-month. Mainstream offers in the East China market were between 12,300-12,500 yuan/ton (spot ex-works). Negotiations in the Shandong market were around 12,200-12,200 yuan/ton (spot ex-works). Transactions in the South China market were negotiated at 12,700-13,300 yuan/ton (account period, delivered).

II. Dual-Process Profits Narrowed Significantly in Late April Due to Rapid Price Decline

In terms of monthly average profitability, as of April 28, profits for both the ACH and C4 processes showed an increasing trend, primarily due to higher average MMA prices. However, looking at specific stages, MMA prices kept falling in late April, causing a significant decline in profitability for both processes. Specifically, ACH process profit fell 63% and C4 process profit fell 43% compared to the previous week (all profit changes are theoretical reference values).

III. Analysis of Factors Behind the MMA Decline: Insufficient Domestic Demand and Export Support

(1) From March to early April, costs for most downstream products were high, and price transmission was blocked, resulting in a situation where high prices had no buyers. After prices peaked and fell, downstream buyers pressured for lower prices. Consequently, enthusiasm for raw material procurement waned, leading some enterprises to reduce operating rates or output. For instance, in the sheet sector, the price gap between virgin and recycled materials led to a decrease in virgin material usage.

(2) In the first half of April, new export orders were limited, providing insufficient support to the market and weakening sentiment.

(3) In mid-month, sellers showed a clear intention to sell, actively pushing inventory out. Offers began to loosen, and the bargaining atmosphere between buyers and sellers became pronounced.

IV. Near-Term Focus on Cost and Supply-Demand Dynamics

From the supply side, based on current maintenance schedules for May, there is an expectation of increased MMA supply. Attention must be paid to sellers' inventory clearance pace and any unplanned maintenance events. On the demand side, significant improvement is unlikely. It will be crucial to see whether lower prices can stimulate export growth and increase spot procurement volume from downstream sectors. In summary, multiple factors coexist in the near-term market. With some cost support, whether the supply-demand imbalance can ease will further influence price trends. It is expected that MMA prices will maintain a low-level operating state in the short term.