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International Energy Agency: Global Oil Market Faces Worst Supply Bottleneck in History

Published on 2026-03-14

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest monthly oil market report on March 12 that due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history. If shipping cannot resume promptly, the global crude oil supply gap will further widen.

The report pointed out that the volume of crude oil and petroleum products transported through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from approximately 20 million barrels per day before the U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran to "extremely low levels" at present. Due to limited alternative shipping capacity bypassing key routes and storage facilities nearing saturation, Gulf countries have reduced their total daily crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels. The report forecasts that global crude oil supply will drop by about 8 million barrels per day in March.

The report noted that the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran have significantly impacted the global refined oil market, with over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Middle East already halted. Affected by insufficient raw material supply, refining in other regions will also gradually face constraints.

The report revealed that since the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, international oil prices have experienced sharp fluctuations. The price of Brent crude oil futures in London once surged to nearly $120 per barrel. Against this backdrop, IEA member countries unanimously agreed on the 11th to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate global supply tensions. Data shows that global crude oil and refined oil inventories reached 8.21 billion barrels in January, the highest level since February 2021.

The report emphasized that releasing oil reserves is only a temporary measure. The ultimate impact of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas market and the overall economy depends not only on the intensity of military actions and the extent of damage to energy facilities but, more critically, on the duration of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. (By Cui Kexin)

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