Is cobaltous chloride supply chain risk rising amid DRC export controls?

Is cobaltous chloride supply chain risk rising amid DRC export controls?
The DRC's export quota enforcement and recent tax disputes with major producers like KCC are tightening global cobalt feedstock. In July, Chinese cobalt salt production fell 31.9% year-on-year, and refined inventories are being drawn down as in-transit cargoes from pre-ban shipments deplete. The DRC accounted for 96% of China's cobalt raw material imports in July, highlighting extreme concentration risk. While domestic recycling now covers about 34% of China's cobalt demand, up from 13% in early 2025, it cannot fully substitute for primary ore. Indonesian MHP has emerged as an alternative source, but policy tightening there is limiting growth. For cobaltous chloride specifically, refiners face higher input costs and potential production cuts, which could lead to supply gaps for downstream electroplating and catalyst customers in coming months.