After the May holiday, the MMA market saw a period of price increases, with the East China market rising from 12,400 yuan/ton to 12,900 yuan/ton, a 4.03% gain. Following a brief consolidation, prices in East China began to decline around the middle of last week. As of May 18, the East China market was quoted at 12,300-12,400 yuan/ton.

I. MMA market rose then fell in May, with average prices declining

The average market price in April reached the peak for January-April at 14,066.67 yuan/ton. After this high, the market returned to being supply-demand driven. The trend in May was weaker; although prices cumulatively rose by 500 yuan/ton after the holiday, the downward trend in average prices was difficult to reverse. As of May 18, mainstream reference prices had fallen below the level seen on the first working day after the holiday, fluctuating in the range of 12,300-12,400 yuan/ton.

II. Supply first decreased then increased in May, with a growing intention to sell

As shown in Figure 2, in the first half of May, several domestic MMA plants underwent concentrated maintenance, leading to a decline in output. The domestic capacity utilization rate further dropped to 52%. The maintenance covered the Northeast, Shandong, East China, and South China regions.

As shown in Figure 3, with the restart of some maintenance units last week, the capacity utilization rate in the MMA industry increased significantly, rising by 9 percentage points from 53% last week to an estimated 62%. At the same time, some holders' intention to sell strengthened, with offering prices moving lower and negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

III. Insufficient temporary support from domestic demand and exports, with weak buying sentiment

In May, domestic demand showed no substantial improvement, and the overall atmosphere was lackluster. Apart from contract fulfillment, spot purchases were mostly for immediate use. Regarding foreign trade, some orders were delivered in the first half of the month. By last week, some orders were nearing completion, while new orders were limited. The temporary support from exports was insufficient, and both domestic demand and exports were lackluster, which was a significant factor in the market weakening this week.

IV. Supply increases in May, but a potential decline in June

In the latter half of May, MMA production increased, and some sellers still intend to sell. However, on the cost side, recent price increases of some upstream raw materials still provide some support, which may limit the market's fluctuation range. According to preliminary statistics, several plants in Shandong and East China plan maintenance in June, which is expected to reduce output, and it is not impossible to see upward price expectations during certain periods. However, June is in the off-season for demand, with both bullish and bearish factors present. The market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation pattern overall.