Preface: Multiple major methanol production facilities in the Middle East remain offline, keeping the overall global methanol operating rate persistently low. Meanwhile, the basis between China and neighboring international markets continues to widen, sustaining an open arbitrage window. This scenario maintains a pattern of low import volumes and high export volumes in the domestic market, with port methanol inventories expected to continue declining.

I. Methanol Imports Expected to Remain Low

Currently, the global methanol plant operating rate remains low. For specific data, please refer to the weekly statistics on global methanol output and capacity utilization. Additionally, international logistics have yet to return to normal operations, which to some extent delays the restart of global facilities and also impacts the logistics of methanol shipments to China.

Furthermore, aside from neighboring markets being far higher than the Chinese market (allowing for regional arbitrage), as shown in Figure 2, the Chinese market also sits higher than other international consumer markets. Therefore, this will also affect non-Iranian imports to some extent.

Overall, influenced by multiple factors, methanol import volumes are expected to remain persistently low.

II. Export Volumes Remain at a Relatively High Level

The chart below shows the trend of weekly methanol export volumes. Due to incomplete statistics in some export data, there may be some discrepancies with the monthly export data from customs.

As shown in the chart, domestic methanol export volumes have surged recently, significantly exceeding historical export data. The main reasons are the tight global methanol supply, high operating rates at domestic methanol plants, and a price increase in China that has lagged behind neighboring international markets. This has opened and sustained an export arbitrage window, driving a substantial increase in export volumes driven by high trade profits.

III. Port Methanol Inventories Continue to Decline

Overall, although the downstream methanol consumption season is currently weak, coupled with ongoing market uncertainties, spot market buying sentiment remains sluggish. However, under the influence of low import volumes and high export volumes, port methanol inventories continue to decline. Going forward, attention should be paid to the potential impact of domestic supply replenishment and changes in coastal downstream plant operations on the supply-demand structure of the port market.