Introduction: In recent years, China's unsaturated polyester resin industry has gradually entered a phase of capacity digestion, with a notable slowdown in new capacity expansion. Existing capacity is being absorbed by the market, driving moderate growth in production, though capacity utilization rates have shown a slight decline. Meanwhile, relatively weak growth in downstream demand has led to an ongoing accumulation of supply-demand imbalances, keeping market prices under prolonged downward pressure. However, following the Spring Festival in 2026, international geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices significantly increased the cost of key raw materials, rapidly compressing industry profit margins. First-quarter data indicate that the average gross profit margin for domestic unsaturated polyester resin declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter drop of 59.3%, reflecting the dual pressures of cost pass-through and insufficient demand.

In the first quarter of 2026, the domestic unsaturated polyester resin market continued its upward trend, but industry profitability continued to narrow. According to data from chempricehub, by the end of March, the industry's gross profit per ton was 264.32 yuan, a significant decrease from 827.46 yuan/ton in the same period of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 68.06%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, it still fell by 59.3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the ongoing squeeze on profits from cost pressures.

According to statistics from chempricehub, in the first quarter of 2026, domestic unsaturated polyester resin production reached 749,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 40.5%, up 2.04% year-on-year. In recent years, rapid expansion on the supply side has been a key factor contributing to the sustained pressure on unsaturated polyester resin prices.

Although the pace of industry capacity expansion slowed significantly after March 2026, some new capacity continued to come online. By the end of the first quarter, China's total unsaturated polyester resin capacity had climbed to 6.85 million tons per year, an increase of 100,000 tons per year cumulatively from the previous period. At the same time, upstream raw material markets experienced a broad-based price increase, with core raw materials such as styrene and maleic anhydride remaining in a state of cost inversion for an extended period. While this round of raw material price increases led to a temporary recovery in industry profits, the transmission of cost pressures to downstream sectors caused production profits for unsaturated polyester resin to shrink once again, ultimately falling into a loss-making range.

Currently, the market for key unsaturated polyester resin raw materials—styrene, maleic anhydride, phthalic anhydride, and diethylene glycol—is in a phase of fluctuating increases. The cost side of unsaturated polyester resin is supported by firm upward momentum. Although its own price continues to rise, the increase in raw material prices has outpaced that of the resin, narrowing the price spread between upstream and downstream and reducing the industry's profit margin. According to chempricehub data, in the first quarter of 2025, the average market prices for unsaturated polyester resin, styrene, maleic anhydride, phthalic anhydride, and diethylene glycol were 8,433 yuan/ton, 8,425 yuan/ton, 5,899 yuan/ton, 6,489 yuan/ton, and 3,973 yuan/ton, respectively. Year-on-year changes were -9.02%, 0.2%, -9.29%, -6.00%, and -13.14%, respectively. Quarter-on-quarter changes were 10.52%, 28.33%, -17.39%, and -17.26%, respectively.

In the first quarter of 2026, the unsaturated polyester resin industry chain exhibited a notable "structural divergence in upstream and downstream supply and demand." Upstream raw materials continued to face supply-demand imbalance pressures, while the supply-demand contradiction in the downstream unsaturated polyester resin market had not been effectively alleviated. This structural difference directly led to a polarization in profitability across various segments of the industry chain.

Specifically, the raw material market for unsaturated polyester resin, led by styrene, remained in a state of supply-demand mismatch. Against the backdrop of broad-based price increases for basic chemical raw materials such as maleic anhydride, phthalic anhydride, and diethylene glycol, overall profitability in the raw material segment is expected to improve, though some products still face operational risks due to "impeded cost pass-through." In contrast, the downstream unsaturated polyester resin segment is grappling with sharply compressed profit margins. As raw material prices continue to climb to historical highs, end-processing enterprises in sectors like fiberglass and stone materials, having reached their cost-bearing thresholds, have widely reduced production or even shut down, leading to a contraction in terminal market demand. It is anticipated that in 2026, industry chain profits will further concentrate in the unsaturated polyester resin production segment, making the profitability divergence between upstream and downstream even more pronounced.