Introduction: As of April 16, the price of mixed C5 in the Shandong market was RMB 5,530/tonne, down RMB 1,110/tonne or 16.72% from RMB 6,640/tonne the previous week. The average price in the East China market was RMB 5,650/tonne, down RMB 970/tonne or 14.65% from the previous week.

I. Significant Correction in Mixed C5 Market Over the Past Week

Spot prices for domestic mixed C5 in Shandong experienced volatile declines. Mixed C5 refineries faced significant inventory pressure, leading to consecutive price drops aimed at stimulating shipments. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remained weak, with traders and downstream plants making small orders only at low prices, resulting in subdued market trading activity.

As of April 16, the price of mixed C5 in the Shandong market was RMB 5,530/tonne, down RMB 1,110/tonne or 16.72% from RMB 6,640/tonne the previous week. The average price in the East China market was RMB 5,650/tonne, down RMB 970/tonne or 14.65% from the previous week.

II. Weakened Bottom Support for Mixed C5 Amid Falling International Oil Prices

International crude oil prices declined, with average prices also dropping. As of April 15, WTI was priced at $91.29/barrel, down 6.72% from April 9; Brent was priced at $94.93/barrel, down 1.03% from April 9. The primary bearish factors included signals from the US and Iran regarding the potential resumption of talks, which heightened market caution and temporarily eased geopolitical concerns.

III. Deep Correction in Gasoline Market as Core Driver for Mixed C5 Price Decline

The finished oil market at Shandong independent refineries weakened (92# gasoline price at RMB 8,196/tonne, down RMB 751/tonne or 8.39% week-on-week, but up RMB 428/tonne or 5.51% year-on-year; 0# diesel price at RMB 7,374/tonne, down RMB 477/tonne or 6.08% week-on-week, but up RMB 884/tonne or 13.62% year-on-year). Amid fluctuating declines in international crude oil futures, finished oil prices in Shandong continued to fall. Refineries in the region frequently reduced prices to promote sales. However, current terminal demand remains insufficient, and social inventory digestion is slow. Midstream and downstream players are purchasing based on needs while destocking, leading to generally flat market trading sentiment.

IV. Short-Term Market Logic Unchanged, Wide Fluctuations to Become Norm

Crude Oil Outlook: International oil prices are expected to have room for further decline next week, with WTI potentially trading in the range of $87-96/barrel and Brent in the range of $90-98/barrel. The core logic for next week's price trend prediction is as follows: The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to resume soon, alleviating market concerns. If preliminary consensus is reached, tensions in the Middle East will ease temporarily, leading to a reduction in geopolitical premiums and further weakening support for oil prices.

Demand Outlook: Gasoline and diesel demand continues to be suppressed by high oil prices. However, with the recent expansion of the wholesale-retail price spread, some regional gas stations have increased discounts, leading to relatively stable demand for gasoline and diesel. Nevertheless, industry participants remain cautious about the market outlook, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that gasoline and diesel prices may still trend downward.

Mixed C5 Outlook: The mixed C5 market is expected to have further downside potential next week, though the rate of decline may narrow. Refineries continue to face inventory pressure, making it difficult to halt the price decline. It is anticipated that the domestic C5 light component market will still have room to decline next week, with a narrowing rate of decrease.