Introduction: Both fundamental and macroeconomic factors remain uncertain. Although low import supply expectations provide support for the port methanol market, prices continue to exhibit wide fluctuations in response to market news.
I. Low Import Supply Expectations Persist
The impact of the international situation continues, and while its development is highly uncertain, the current low operating rates of international plants are expected to persist with a relatively slow recovery pace. The expectation of low imports is likely to continue. The specific timing and speed of recovery depend on factors such as the impact of the international situation on global plant operations and shipping capacity.
II. Demand Side Faces Uncertainty
Over the past two weeks, operating rates at downstream plants have mostly declined, leading to a decrease in methanol consumption. However, market offtake and trader sales are fluctuating due to various factors including price, transportation, and export volumes. Overall, domestic methanol inventories have shown a declining trend.
Looking ahead, although many downstream sectors have a strong willingness to maintain operations, their expected operating rates face significant uncertainty due to factors such as equipment failures and insufficient raw material inventories. This uncertainty is a key factor influencing future supply-demand margins and a major focus for the market.
III. Inventories Continue to Decline in the Short-to-Medium Term; Future Outlook Awaits Observation
Overall, port methanol inventories are likely to continue declining in April, providing bottom support for the coastal methanol market. It is almost certain that import volumes will remain low. However, whether destocking can proceed smoothly going forward may hinge crucially on the demand side.
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