I. Key Focus Points (Highlighting cost changes, weekly supply-demand outlook, and current hot events)
September 18: Expectations of improved repairs to Saudi oil pipelines, combined with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, led to a decline in international crude oil prices. The NYMEX WTI October contract fell USD 1.61/bbl to USD 100.30, down 1.58% on a day-on-day basis; the ICE Brent November contract dropped USD 0.95/bbl to USD 103.87, down 0.91%. The INE Shanghai Crude Oil November 2026 contract fell CNY 50.6 to CNY 754.4/barrel, and declined another CNY 19.6 to CNY 734.8/barrel during the night session.
Propylene Oxide (PO): On the previous trading day, the domestic PO market continued its downward adjustment. Supply-side units remained largely stable. Overall market shipments were sluggish recently, leading some plants to accumulate moderate inventories. Prices continued to negotiate lower. Raw material costs fluctuated within a narrow range, currently having limited impact. While downstream demand showed some rigid requirements ahead of the holiday, most buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, reducing procurement volumes and intending to purchase only after reaching a temporary low point. Market sentiment remained weak.
| Product | Region | Sep 18 | Sep 20 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5900 | 5650 | -4.24% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5850 | 5700 | -2.56% |
| Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC) | South China | 6000 | 5900 | -1.67% |
| Notes: 1. DMC is industrial grade. 2. Unit: CNY/ton. 3. In the table above, prices for Shandong are ex-factory acceptance (banker's acceptance), East China are delivered acceptance, and South China are delivered T/T (telegraphic transfer). 4. Change rate refers to period-over-period variation. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data Indicator | Release Time | Previous Period | Current Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly DMC Output | Thursday 17:00 PM | 57,600 tons | ↘ |
| Weekly PO Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 67.35% | ↗ |
| Weekly DMC Operating Rate | Thursday 17:00 PM | 67.95% | ↘ |
| Weekly Profit (PO Transesterification Process) | Thursday 17:00 PM | 1,314 | ↓ |
| Notes: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with fluctuations within 0-3%. |
Forecast: On the previous trading day, the domestic DMC market continued to face pressure and trended lower, with trading activity declining further. Downstream end-users showed weak purchasing willingness, mostly maintaining small orders based on rigid demand. A strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevailed, resulting in limited actual transactions. Although factories currently do not face inventory pressure, market participants hold bearish expectations for the future. Sellers have increased their willingness to ship goods, continuing to lower quotes to stimulate sales. Chempricehub believes that in the short term, the domestic DMC market will continue to operate under pressure due to the dual impact of increasing supply and insufficient downstream follow-up, with negotiation centers likely to shift lower.
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