Introduction: On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran subsequently announced a comprehensive blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This historic geopolitical conflict rapidly ignited the global energy market. As a coal chemical product using crude benzene as feedstock and highly correlated with petroleum benzene, the hydrobenzene (hydrogenated benzene) industry experienced price surges, profit recovery, and increased operating rates over the following two months.

I. Rising Crude Oil Costs Push Up Pure Benzene Prices, Thereby Elevating Hydrobenzene Prices

The price trend of hydrobenzene is fundamentally driven by the cost transmission logic from crude oil to pure benzene. Following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz—a maritime chokepoint handling approximately 20% of global oil trade—experienced its first substantial and comprehensive blockade, causing international oil prices to surge. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $72.48 per barrel in late February. After the conflict erupted, WTI opened sharply higher at $75.00 per barrel, while Brent soared to $81.57 per barrel, subsequently climbing to around $118 per barrel, accumulating an increase of over 30% within a single month.

The sharp rise in crude oil quickly transmitted down the industrial chain. Pure benzene, as the core intermediate in the benzene chain, was the first to bear this cost shock. Since late February, domestic pure benzene market prices have skyrocketed. In March, Shandong's pure benzene price surged to 11,000 yuan per ton, with the March average price reaching 7,925.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,802.5 yuan per ton or 29.4% compared to February's average of 6,123 yuan per ton.

Hydrobenzene followed suit. According to Chempricehub data, the monthly average price of hydrobenzene in Shandong in February was 6,150 yuan per ton. Entering March, as Sinopec's East China pure benzene listed price was successively raised to a historical high of 11,000 yuan per ton, hydrobenzene prices surged significantly. The highest average price in the Shandong market rose to around 9,500 yuan per ton, with the March average for Shandong hydrobenzene reaching 7,939 yuan per ton, a 29.1% increase. However, due to dramatic fluctuations in the US-Iran situation after April—with negotiation news alternating with escalation of conflict—the hydrobenzene market also experienced a rollercoaster ride of sharp rises and falls, subsequently fluctuating widely within a high range of 8,000-9,000 yuan per ton.

II. Profit-Driven Increase in Hydrobenzene Operating Rates

As hydrobenzene prices remained high while the increase in feedstock crude benzene was relatively moderate, the price spread between the two widened to a阶段性高点 of 1,370 yuan per ton. This led to a significant recovery in hydrobenzene industry profits, boosting companies' willingness to operate. After entering April, the hydrobenzene operating rate further recovered. The restart of several units pushed the hydrobenzene operating rate to 68.89%, as companies actively seized the profit window.

III. Hydrobenzene Profits Shift from Loss to Gain

In February, the domestic hydrobenzene industry welcomed a long-awaited profit window, with even more impressive profit performance in March and April. Influenced by the Middle East geopolitical conflict and driven by rising crude oil and costs, the crude benzene market experienced a narrow upward price movement due to high social inventories and high levels of low-cost feedstock inventories held by hydrobenzene companies. Meanwhile, the overall increase in hydrobenzene prices exceeded that of its feedstock, pushing up profits for Shandong's hydrobenzene sector. By mid-April, hydrobenzene profits further increased to 679 yuan per ton (weekly), marking a peak profit moment for benzene hydrogenation enterprises.

Overall, the US-Iran conflict since February 28th, through the cost transmission chain of "crude oil → pure benzene → hydrobenzene," has had a clear impact on the hydrobenzene industry in terms of price, operating rates, and profits, making it a beneficiary of this round of geopolitical market dynamics.

However, the sustainability of hydrobenzene prices, operating rates, and profits faces tests. The US-Iran situation continues to evolve dramatically—the Strait of Hormuz experienced an "open-close" reversal in mid-April, with Iran announcing another blockade on the 18th. The direction of the situation remains highly uncertain. For hydrobenzene enterprises, navigating the conflicting logics of geopolitical premiums and fundamental supply benefits, they must both seize short-term market opportunities and remain vigilant against the risks of sudden shifts in the situation and downstream negative feedback leading to price corrections.