Market Review
During the current period (March 19–25, 2026, same below), the absolute price of PX declined. Geopolitical tensions eased within the week, leading to a pullback in crude oil futures prices and a corresponding drop in PX prices. The naphtha market remained tight, with prices continuing to rise, resulting in a decrease in PX processing margins during the week.

Key Points
① Weekly PX output reached 723.1k tonnes, up 0.35% week-on-week (WoW).
② Average domestic PX operating rate stood at 87.42%, up 0.3% WoW.
③ Average weekly operating rate for PX in Asia was 77.14%, up 0.13% WoW.

I. Lower Costs Drive PX Prices Down

During the current period, PX absolute prices fell. As geopolitical concerns moderated, crude oil futures retreated, pulling PX prices lower. Despite ongoing tightness in the naphtha market and rising prices, PX processing margins declined over the week.

• WTI crude averaged $90.32/barrel, down 6.05% WoW.
• Brent crude averaged $102.22/barrel, down 5.92% WoW.
• As of Wednesday, March 25, the average Asian PX price was $1,241.07/tonne CFR China and $1,219.07/tonne FOB Korea, down $35.86/tonne WoW, representing declines of 2.81% and 2.86%, respectively.
• Sinopec’s March PX settlement price was set at ¥9,750/tonne (with a ¥20/tonne discount for cash payment).

| Figure 1: PX Key Market Trends |
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| Source: ChemPriceHub |

During the period, the restart of Yizheng Chemical Fiber significantly boosted domestic supply. Demand saw a modest increase due to the restart of some units and the commissioning of new facilities. Overall, the balance sheet showed an expansion in inventory accumulation. With a temporary easing of Middle East tensions, market sentiment improved, international oil prices retreated from highs, and feedstock PX prices fluctuated downward, weakening cost support. As a result, PTA spot prices in the domestic market retreated after trading at elevated levels.

By the close, the weekly average PTA spot price in East China was ¥6,646/tonne, down ¥218/tonne WoW.

| Figure 2: PTA Market Analysis This Week |
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| Source: ChemPriceHub |

II. Restart at Ningbo Daxie Boosts Output

During the week, CNOOC’s 1.5 million tonne/year PX unit at Ningbo Daxie restarted, while a 2 million tonne/year PX unit at Zhejiang Petrochemical began a 30–40 day maintenance.

• Weekly PX output was 723.1k tonnes, up 0.35% WoW.
• Domestic average weekly operating rate reached 87.42%, up 0.3% WoW.
• Asia’s average weekly operating rate was 77.14%, up 0.13% WoW.

| Figure 3: PX and Downstream PTA Operating Rate Changes |
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| Source: ChemPriceHub |

Domestic PTA output this week was 1.5318 million tonnes, up 76.64k tonnes WoW and 139.3k tonnes year-on-year. The restart of Yizheng Chemical Fiber, coupled with stable operations at other units, led to a significant increase in overall domestic production during the period.

III. Rising Demand Drives Inventory Drawdown

PX Output Forecast for Next Week: No PX unit changes are expected next week. Weekly PX output is projected at 725.4k tonnes. Given ongoing risks in crude oil and naphtha supply, close attention should be paid to PX operating rates.

Table 1: China PX Supply-Demand Balance Sheet
Unit: 10k tonnes

| Data Type | Item | Current Period | Previous Period | Change | Next Period Trend |
| :----------------- | :-------------- | :------------- | :-------------- | :------- | :---------------- |
| Supply | Domestic PX Output | 720.6 | 738.3 | -17.7 | 744.8 |
| | PX Imports | 210.0 | 186.7 | +23.3 | 210.0 |
| | Total Supply | 930.6 | 953.3 | -22.7| 954.8 |
| Demand | Domestic Consumption | 962.8 | 936.3 | +26.5 | 1,005.7 |
| | Exports | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| | Total Demand | 962.8 | 936.3 | +26.5| 1,005.7 |
| Balance | Weekly Theoretical Balance | -32.2 | 17.0 | -49.2| -50.9 |

Source: ChemPriceHub

PTA Output Forecast for Next Week:
With the restart of previously idled units in East China, domestic supply is expected to rise slightly. Weekly output next week is projected around 1.52 million tonnes.

IV. Limited Supply-Demand Imbalance Points to Narrow, Weak Price Movement

| Figure 4: Sentiment Survey for PX in China Next Week |
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| Source: ChemPriceHub |

This week’s survey covered 20 sample enterprises, including 15 PX producers, 3 downstream consumers, and 2 traders.

• Bullish (5%): Persistent feedstock supply risks continue to provide support.
• Neutral (20%): The market lacks clear directional guidance.
• Bearish (75%): High costs, downstream production cuts, and weak cost support are key concerns.

Outlook: PX prices are expected to trend lower next week, with weak cost support and signs of easing geopolitical tensions. PX is forecast to trade around $1,300/tonne CFR China.

• Cost: International oil prices may decline, with WTI expected between $88–97/barrel and Brent between $98–107/barrel.
• Supply: No PX unit changes are anticipated. Weekly output is projected at 725.4k tonnes. Risks in crude and naphtha supply warrant close monitoring of PX operating rates.
• Demand: With the restart of previously idled units in East China, domestic PTA supply is expected to rise slightly. Weekly output is projected around 1.52 million tonnes.