Prices continued their strong upward momentum, with futures consolidating at high levels (20260907).

1. Today's Focus Points

1. Yulin Yankuang's methanol auction opened at 3,050 yuan/ton today with a volume of 8,000 tons; all lots ultimately traded at 3,070–3,080 yuan/ton.
2. Inner Mongolia Chifeng Boyuan's 150,000-ton/year natural gas-based methanol unit was shut down for maintenance today (September 7). The maintenance is expected to last about 20 days, and no shipments will be made during this period.

2. Today's Market and Forecast

Table 1 Summary of domestic methanol and related product prices (yuan/ton)

Source: Chempricehub

Today's Comment

Today, the methanol spot price index stood at 3,208.57, up 62.73. Among the key markets, Taicang spot prices were 3,363, down 22, while Inner Mongolia North Line prices were 3,125, up 97.5. According to Chempricehub monitoring of prices in 20 large and medium-sized cities, 10 cities saw price increases of varying degrees, ranging from 20 to 250 yuan/ton.

Today, the domestic methanol market continued its strong upward trajectory, with futures consolidating at high levels. Port prices remained supported by persistent near-term destocking expectations, keeping the basis firm. Buyers followed up on essential needs at lower price levels, while closely monitoring the navigation status of the strait. Inland upstream producers continued to hold low inventories, and some local methanol plants stayed under maintenance, leaving spot supply slightly tight. Combined with downstream rigid-demand buying and seasonal stockpiling support, new orders remained consistently active. In the short term, given sound supply-demand fundamentals, the market is expected to continue consolidating with a firm tone. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream price-chasing activity and changes in logistics freight costs.

3. Basis

In the afternoon, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures fluctuated. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,149 yuan/ton, hit a high of 3,239 yuan/ton and a low of 3,105 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,212 yuan/ton at the end of trading, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price. As of the close, open interest in the MA2609 contract stood at 620,700 lots, an increase of 14,200 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Updates

Table 2 Summary of methanol and downstream production updates

Source: Chempricehub

5. Price Forecast

1. Today, the domestic methanol market continued its strong upward trend, with futures consolidating at high levels. Port prices were underpinned by expectations of continued near-term destocking, and the basis remained firm. Buyers made essential purchases on dips while closely watching strait navigation conditions. Inland upstream producers continued to hold low inventories, and some local methanol plants remained under maintenance, leaving spot supply slightly tight. Supported by downstream rigid demand and seasonal stockpiling, new order activity stayed robust. In the short term, sound supply-demand fundamentals are expected to keep the market consolidating with a firm tone. Market participants should monitor the sustainability of downstream price chasing and changes in logistics freight costs.

2. In the medium-to-long term, methanol imports continue to remain at low levels. As downstream demand recovers, domestic methanol producers are expected to keep units under maintenance until late September, leading to a gradual tightening in domestic supply. Inland methanol market prices are likely to hit new highs again.

6. Market Sentiment

Table 3 Sentiment expectations of domestic methanol upstream and downstream industry participants

Source: Chempricehub

7. Related Product Updates

Glacial acetic acid: Glacial acetic acid plants continued to push prices higher over the weekend. Today, some regional plants further raised offers, and with production fluctuations at plants in Shandong and Henan, the market followed with gains. At present, producers face little sales pressure, and most inventories remain low. Chempricehub expects the glacial acetic acid market price center to continue rising in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market showed mixed gains and losses today. Bargaining sentiment emerged over the weekend. In Henan and Anhui, price centers weakened under shipment pressure, with destocking as the main theme. During the day, supported by strengthening costs, formaldehyde prices in many regions followed upward and continued trading. Inquiries were acceptable, but trading sentiment was lackluster. Chempricehub expects the formaldehyde market to fluctuate with a firm bias in the short term.

Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market ran steadily today. Feedstock methanol rose sharply, further strengthening costs. The dimethyl ether market has not yet followed upward due to weak demand. Producers are observing downstream offtake sentiment, while end-users continue purchasing based on rigid demand. Chempricehub expects the dimethyl ether market to consolidate with a firm tone in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4 Overview of domestic methanol data (unit: 10,000 tons)

Source: Chempricehub

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates slight fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%.