Lead: International oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, driving continuous increases in raw material C5 prices. End-user demand has been steadily rising, and C5 petroleum resin prices have increased by 1,000 RMB/ton, with price momentum moderating this week.
1. Cracked C5 and Isoprene Prices Continue to Rebound
As of this Friday, cracked C5 prices in North China rose by 300 to 5,800 RMB/ton, in East China increased by 400 to 5,900 RMB/ton, in Northeast China ranged from 5,450 to 5,840 RMB/ton, and in South China rose by 550/200 to 5,400–5,700 RMB/ton. Some private enterprises saw prices rise to 5,840–6,803 RMB/ton. Isoprene prices increased to 7,000–7,900 RMB/ton.
2. C5 Petroleum Resin Downstream Demand Continues to Improve
Although July remains the off-season for downstream hot melt adhesives and hot melt coatings, the sustained rise in international oil prices has pushed up raw material C5 prices. To avoid the supply shortage experienced in March–April, downstream buyers have increased procurement volumes. Combined with low safety stock levels, this has driven inventory replenishment, significantly boosting market transaction volumes. Additionally, as August approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase by 10%–20%, with rigid demand continuing to expand.
3. C5 Petroleum Resin Supply Remains at Low Levels
This week, C5 petroleum resin output stood at 8,000 tons, with an operating rate of 61.8%, up from 60.14% last week. Overall operating rates in June–July remained between 48% and 63%, keeping market supply persistently low.
In summary, raw material cracked C5 and isoprene prices continue to rebound. First, supply remains at low levels, and the persistently low supply of mixed C5 has intensified demand growth from non-deep-processing sectors, driving prices higher. Second, the recovery of end-user demand and low inventories have led to phased restocking, with market transaction volumes rapidly expanding this week. Inventories have decreased by an average of 40% compared to end-June, and the market is continuously destocking. This has propelled the C5 petroleum resin market, resulting in further price hikes of 200–500 RMB/ton during the week.
Looking ahead to next week, raw material C5 and isoprene prices are expected to continue their modest upward trend. C5 petroleum resin supply is still in a gradual recovery phase, with operating rates remaining below 70%. Factories are mostly sticking to planned supply schedules, with some implementing limited allocations. Downstream buyers still have restocking needs, and demand is expected to rise by another 10%–20%. Meanwhile, the unclear situation between the U.S. and Iran is, on one hand, suppressing the release of end-user demand, and on the other hand, intensifying the risk of supply chain disruptions, prompting end-users to enter the market for essential needs. With no clear directional guidance in the near term, the overall picture shows that while downstream rigid demand is expanding, the timing of supply recovery remains uncertain. These mismatches are intensifying, leading to a growing reluctance among some participants in the C5 petroleum resin market to sell, and negotiated prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend.
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