According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's sulfur imports in March 2026 reached 516,300 tons, a decrease of 4.05% month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decline of 42.20%. Cumulative imports for the first quarter of 2026 totaled 1.5501 million tons, down 37.67% compared to 2.4869 million tons in the same period of 2025, and an even steeper decline of 45.13% compared to 2.8253 million tons in the first quarter of 2024. The month-on-month and year-on-year declines in import volume, reaching the lowest level for the same period in nearly five years, not only provided favorable support for the continuous rise in spot prices in the latter half of the quarter but also led to a complete reshuffle in the rankings of import trading partners.

1. Historical Comparison: Import Scale Contracts, with Significant Year-on-Year Decline

Reviewing the import data for the first quarter over the past five years: from 2021 to 2025, the figures were 2.5314 million tons, 1.722 million tons, 2.1839 million tons, 2.8253 million tons, and 2.4869 million tons, respectively. The performance of 1.5501 million tons in the first quarter of 2026 is not only significantly lower than that of 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025 but also represents a 9.9% decline compared to the lowest level among the previous five years, which was recorded in the same period of 2022. In terms of monthly trends, imports for January to March were 497,200 tons, 538,100 tons, and 516,300 tons, respectively, fluctuating around 500,000 tons. This marks a noticeable contraction compared to the average monthly import volume of 700,000 to 900,000 tons during the same period in the previous three years.

2. Trade Structure: Top Ten List Overhauled, Middle East Temporarily Loses Dominant Position

The structure of sulfur import sources underwent significant changes in the first quarter of 2026, with the traditional dominance of the Middle East being disrupted and the proportion of supplies from other countries increasing notably. Key changes in data for major trading partners include: Saudi Arabia's imports dropped from 465,400 tons to 217,100 tons, a decline of 53.35%; the United Arab Emirates decreased from 365,200 tons to 102,300 tons, a drop of 71.99%; Iran, which supplied 168,100 tons in the first quarter of 2025, saw its supply nearly cut off to 1,200 tons in the first quarter of 2026, temporarily exiting the top ten ranking of trading partners.

South Korea, Oman, and Canada: These countries maintained stable positions in the top three, collectively accounting for over 50% of imports, forming the new core supply pillars.

Japan and Vietnam: Their rankings improved significantly, highlighting the supplementary role of non-mainstream sources.

3. Underlying Causes: Geopolitical Conflicts + High Prices Suppress Demand, Forcing Supply Restructuring

Previously, data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that China's sulfur imports in 2025 were approximately 9.61 million tons, with 56% sourced from the Middle East. In the latter half of the first quarter of 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iranian supplies were nearly eliminated, while most resource-exporting countries in the Middle East faced significantly reduced supply due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to soaring freight and insurance costs. Additionally, high international prices noticeably dampened procurement willingness. Relevant data show that at the beginning of the year, Middle East sulfur prices were in the range of FOB $560–582 per ton, with an average import price of $512.67 per ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 154.54%. The persistently strong international market, coupled with future uncertainties, prompted industry players to proactively reduce import volumes to mitigate risks.

4. Future Outlook: Low Imports to Continue, Structure Unlikely to Change in the Short Term

At the beginning of the second quarter, factors such as the Middle East situation, high international prices, and tight shipping schedules will continue to dominate, keeping import volumes low and port inventories in a destocking phase. In the short term, the market may experience high-level consolidation, with a clear trend toward diversification of trade structures and reduced reliance on the Middle East. Key areas to monitor include: developments in the Middle East situation, trends in international prices, downstream procurement willingness around the May Day holiday, and the pace of shipments by holders. Overall, the decline in import data and the reshaping of the trade structure in the first quarter of 2026 are the result of intertwined factors such as geopolitics, prices, supply-demand dynamics, and risk appetite. The tight supply-demand balance is likely to persist, and the pattern of high volatility in the sulfur market is expected to remain unchanged in the short term.