Regional tensions persist, posing upside risks to feedstock prices in the future market (September 20, 2026)

1. Today's Summary

① The domestic fluorspar market today is characterized by strong wait-and-see sentiment, with limited room for future gains. The mainstream price range for 97% wet fluorspar powder in the domestic market is referenced at 3,300–3,850 CNY/ton.

② The mainstream contract price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) downstream for September is tentatively referenced at 15,050–15,200 CNY/ton, while the spot market reference stands at 15,500–16,000 CNY/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Fluorspar Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

The domestic market for 97% fluorspar concentrate remains firm at high levels. Currently, wait-and-see sentiment is prevalent among market participants, who are primarily focused on fulfilling existing orders. On the supply side, production enterprises are maintaining their current operating pace. Although a slight softening in market conditions is expected in the near term, overall prices are projected to remain resilient. Holders are trading according to market trends, maintaining quick inventory turnover with weak intentions for stockpiling. Conversely, on the demand side, although negative factors are continuously transmitted regarding future demand, seasonal needs still drive some stockpiling demand. The tug-of-war between supply and demand awaits guidance from downstream pricing. Current delivered spot prices across various domestic markets are referenced as follows: Inner Mongolia region at 3,300–3,400 CNY/ton; Zhejiang region at 3,500–3,600 CNY/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian regions at 3,700–3,800 CNY/ton; Shandong region at 3,500–3,600 CNY/ton; Northwest region at 3,250–3,350 CNY/ton; Henan and Anhui regions at 3,250–3,350 CNY/ton. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic 97% wet fluorspar powder is referenced at 3,300–3,800 CNY/ton.

3. Production Dynamics

The monthly capacity utilization rate for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in August was 56%.

4. Price Forecast

Bullish sentiment prevails in the fluorspar market, though upside potential is limited. The anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market receives strong support from costs.

5. Related Product Updates

Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid Market:
Today, the domestic AHF market exhibits strong wait-and-see sentiment. There is a clear divergence in market atmosphere between northern and southern regions. In the north, recent feedback indicates persistently tight supply, yet market sentiment is heavily influenced by leverage amplification. There are expectations of continued contraction in future demand, alongside a gradual recovery of small-to-medium capacity on the supply side. In contrast, the southern market appears sluggish. Sulfuric acid prices continue to decline; however, batch maintenance shutdowns of sulfuric acid plants are scheduled for October and November, with a rebound in pressure anticipated after the holiday period. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic AHF in September is referenced at 15,050–15,200 CNY/ton, while the spot market reference stands at 15,500–16,000 CNY/ton.

Sulfuric Acid:
Today, the Chempricehub index for 98% sulfuric acid stood at 1,400 CNY/ton, unchanged from yesterday and consistent with morning expectations. The domestic sulfuric acid market continues its weak trend, with the Yunnan region extending its downward adjustment. While local acid plants have maintained stable production recently, the continuous drop in external prices has led to a significant shrinkage in out-of-province orders, weakening external demand support. Last week, acid plants in Honghe Prefecture took the lead by cutting prices by 50 CNY/ton, dragging down the regional transaction center. Today, major acid plants followed suit with a further cut of 100 CNY/ton, while Honghe acid plants lowered prices again by 90 CNY/ton, intensifying downward price pressure in the region. Trading activity in the Hebei sulfuric acid market was quiet today, with slow shipment rhythms. Low-priced supplies from Henan continue to impact the local market, prompting some downstream customers to shift procurement to neighboring areas, creating obvious diversion pressure on Hebei acid enterprises. Increased inflow of low-priced goods from outside the region further suppresses local companies' shipping space, heightening wait-and-see sentiment and putting pressure on actual transaction negotiations. The national sulfuric acid market maintains an overall weak posture, and short-term trends are likely to continue this bearish pattern.

Refrigerants:
Based on the bulk water market in East China, quotes from mainstream large manufacturers for fluorocarbon refrigerant R134a remained firm, largely consistent with morning market expectations. As of press time, quotes from mainstream East China manufacturers are referenced at 65,000–70,000 CNY/ton (coordinated for domestic and export trade), while the mainstream East China market quote is referenced at 63,500–65,000 CNY/ton (ex-factory tax included), also aligning with morning expectations. Market intelligence indicates that quotes for R134a from mainstream East China factories remain firmly high. Contract negotiations with OEMs are anchored at elevated levels. Low-cost channel inventories have been largely cleared, and remaining quotas for tail-end factories are limited, pushing the center of gravity for intra-market transactions upward. According to automotive industry statistics, new energy vehicles accounted for 60.6% of total new vehicle sales in August. In August 2026, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.653 million and 1.643 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 18.9% and 17.8%, consolidating the dominant position of NEVs and setting a new record for monthly sales share. News reports indicate that the fluorocarbon refrigerant market adheres to "anti-involution" principles, with rigid quota supply keeping the market tight. Quotes for both domestic and export trades remain coordinated and firmly high. Chempricehub forecasts that mainstream East China manufacturers will maintain firm quotes, and the short-term R134a fluorocarbon refrigerant market will consolidate at high levels.