The situation in the Middle East remains tense, and Japan is the first to feel the "chokehold" after the "oil lifeline" of the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. On March 16, the Japanese government initiated the release of its oil reserves, totaling approximately 80 million barrels, equivalent to about 45 days of domestic oil consumption in Japan, setting a record high in scale. Typically, countries coordinate reserve releases under the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA). This marks Japan's first independent action since establishing its national oil reserve system in 1978. Li Qingru, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Service that Japan's first independent release of national oil reserves indicates that supply risks are imminent and cannot wait for international coordination. "This suggests that the Japanese government judges the current energy risks to be more severe than during previous oil crises." Japan is highly dependent on energy imports. Although it once attempted to improve its energy structure by introducing nuclear power, with nuclear power generation accounting for up to 30% of total electricity output, the massive shutdown of nuclear power plants following the "3·11" Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 has led to the gap being filled once again by fossil fuels. Japanese media reported that Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil imports, most of which are transported through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical "lifeline" for Japan's energy supply. Given the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blocked. The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history. As a result, international oil prices continue to rise, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the average price of Brent crude oil in March will exceed $100 per barrel. High dependence brings high sensitivity, and gasoline prices in Japan have also risen significantly recently. According to reports, on March 11, retail gasoline prices in Tokyo had already climbed to over 190 yen per liter. To control oil prices, the Japanese government, in addition to releasing oil reserves, has also stated that it will resume providing price subsidies to oil wholesalers. Although these measures may alleviate short-term oil supply pressures in Japan, in the long run, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, and the risk of obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz may persist for an extended period. Industry experts believe that without incremental supply, as existing oil reserves are gradually depleted, Japan will face greater energy security risks. The risks are not limited to energy but extend to the potential chain reactions that may follow. Rising energy costs will be transmitted to corporate production and wage sectors, leading to a continuous increase in the burden on people's livelihoods, squeezing disposable income, and ultimately suppressing consumer demand. Weak consumption, in turn, will drag down economic recovery, creating a negative cycle. In fact, Japan's inflation rate has remained at a relatively high level in recent years. Data previously released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed that due to persistent inflation, after adjusting for rising prices, Japan's per capita real wages in 2025 decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous year, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. Japanese experts and media believe that with real wage levels continuously declining, rising prices may lead to stagnant consumption, putting pressure on Japan's economic recovery. The spillover effects of the deteriorating situation in the Middle East could further exacerbate this situation. Li Qingru stated that, on the one hand, Japan's economic recovery is weak, and domestic demand is sluggish, requiring continuous expansion of liquidity and increased fiscal investment to stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, high inflation demands that the government tighten policies and curb price increases, creating a clear policy conflict. "Balancing this issue is inherently challenging, and now external factors are adding strong inflationary pressures, further complicating Japan's policy decisions." (Wang Mengyao)