Lead: Recently, the upstream pure benzene market has been affected by bearish factors such as weakening crude oil prices and downstream load reduction and production cuts. This has weakened the cost support for aniline, which, combined with persistently weak downstream demand for aniline itself, has led to a significant decline in buying interest for aniline in the domestic market. Constrained by both cost and demand headwinds, most aniline plants are facing inventory pressure.

Pure benzene prices decline, cost support weakens

Domestic pure benzene inventories remain at high levels, and downstream product prices are struggling to keep pace. The overall profitability of the downstream sector continues to shrink, with production margins under significant pressure, making it difficult to support further price increases for pure benzene. In response, downstream enterprises have gradually implemented measures such as reducing operating rates and cutting production. After a small-scale procurement to replenish raw material inventories at the beginning of the week, downstream buying interest remained low. The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was subdued, with market liquidity shrinking notably. Lacking positive transaction drivers, the overall market trend continued to weaken with a downward bias.

The consecutive decline in pure benzene prices has lowered the cost of aniline and negatively impacted the confidence of downstream and end-users, who have become more cautious in raw material procurement and are targeting lower prices.

Return of maintenance units further dampens market confidence

Table 1: Aniline Unit Maintenance Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

| Producer | Capacity | Start Date | End Date | Days Down | Weekly Output Loss | Reason |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Jilin Xuyang Connell | 18 | 2025/3/20 | / | / | 0.38 | Long-term shutdown |
| Shandong Jinling | 10 | 2026/5/6 | 2026/5/13 | 7 | 0.18 | Unplanned |
| Nanjing Chemical | 10 | 2026/5/1 | 2026/5/14 | 13 | 0.21 | Planned |
| Total | 38 | | | | 0.77 | |

The delayed restart of Nanjing Chemical failed to offset the bearish impact of the early return of Shandong Jinling. Spot market downstream buyers maintained a rigid stance, engaging only in essential procurement.

Lack of improvement in demand, aniline market expected to decline

From the supply side, the domestic aniline market is facing a clear expectation of increased supply. As some previously offline units gradually restart, spot circulation volumes are rising. Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman have entered their planned maintenance periods, leading to a corresponding contraction in aniline demand and a looser supply-demand fundamental balance. This situation puts downward pressure on aniline prices, and overall market sentiment is cautious. Cost pressure on downstream auxiliaries remains unabated, while lower oil prices and eased geopolitical tensions have exacerbated bearish sentiment. Downstream buyers are only purchasing on a need-to basis, with some sellers offering discounts to move product. Negotiation centers have shifted lower, creating negative feedback for the aniline market and hindering smooth offtake.

In summary, despite some manufacturers attempting to support prices, the market is showing a weak trend in the near term against the backdrop of prominent supply-demand contradictions. Prices are expected to consolidate in the range of 11,000–11,600 yuan/ton. Further attention should be paid to the latest developments in domestic demand and export negotiations.