Introduction: In April, the price of vinyl acetate in China continued its strong upward trend. As of April 2nd, taking the petrochemical price in the East China market as an example, the high-low price range was 11,100-11,300 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 86.7% compared to the first working day of the previous month. Multiple factors including soaring costs, increased export demand, and supply contraction have contributed to the continuous rise in vinyl acetate prices.

The impact of geopolitical tensions persists, with support from the supply side, cost side, and export side for vinyl acetate remaining strong, leading to simultaneous increases in price, cost, and profit. Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have widened the spot supply gap in the European market, leading to a corresponding rise in export quotations for Chinese material, while also exacerbating tight domestic supply. Domestically, the producer Haiquan Petrochemical is undergoing maintenance shutdowns, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has maintenance plans for mid-April, further reducing spot availability. Market participants are generally reluctant to sell at low prices. Under the influence of these multiple factors, vinyl acetate prices have continued to climb. As of today, the mainstream average price in the East China market is 11,200 RMB/ton, up 86.7% from the first working day of March, with some higher offers reaching 12,000 RMB/ton. Market participants generally hold an optimistic outlook for further upside potential.

From the cost perspective, Asian ethylene prices experienced a slight dip before rebounding, with offshore prices significantly higher than domestic ones. While domestic trade shipments have somewhat filled the domestic supply gap, and Chinese market acceptance for high-priced USD-denominated cargoes has declined, reduced operating rates at cracking units in multiple Asian countries and regions have tightened spot availability. This, in turn, has boosted demand for spot purchases, supporting the strength of offshore USD prices. Since the onset of geopolitical conflicts, the rise in acetic acid has gradually shifted from being primarily cost-driven to being dominated by its own supply-demand dynamics. Steady domestic demand, coupled with significant price increases and tight supply of acetic acid feedstock in external markets, has boosted exports from China to India. Consequently, factory inventories have gradually declined. Overlapping with shutdowns of some production units on the supply side, market sentiment strongly favors price increases, leading to a broad and significant rise in acetic acid prices.

On the demand side, some downstream EVA units are undergoing maintenance shutdowns, while overall operating rates remain at medium-to-high levels, primarily focused on fulfilling contract orders, resulting in relatively stable demand. Supported by end-user orders, VAE emulsion producers are operating with high enthusiasm. Some of these are co-production units, having a limited impact on vinyl acetate. Polyvinyl alcohol is mostly produced in co-production units, and its price has risen significantly due to raw material costs. However, the recovery in end-market conditions has fallen short of expectations, leading to an overall decline in operating rates. On the export front, a supply gap persists overseas, leading to a significant increase in inquiries for Chinese vinyl acetate export orders. This has created a low-risk, high-certainty arbitrage window, encouraging active participation from producers and supporting a sustained upward shift in the price center.

Some vinyl acetate production units are planned for maintenance shutdowns, with expectations for a further contraction in non-calcium carbide-based supply. Simultaneously, due to fluctuations in overseas raw materials and supply, imports of vinyl acetate are expected to provide limited supplementation. Supplier sentiment remains well-supported, with many high offers in the market. As vinyl acetate prices have surged, industry profit margins have expanded significantly, fully motivating calcium carbide-based producers to increase production. They have raised operating rates, with some even operating at full capacity to capitalize on the current profitable window.

In April, the vinyl acetate market supply side shows a tightening trend. The continuation of tight supply for the upstream raw material acetic acid, along with growing demand from the international market, serves as the core drivers supporting market confidence. Influenced by geopolitical conflicts and maintenance shutdowns of units in the Asia-Pacific region, international market supply has tightened, leading to significant price increases. Against this backdrop, the export competitiveness of Chinese vinyl acetate has become prominent, with April export volumes expected to increase substantially compared to March. The rise in export orders not only absorbs some domestic surplus capacity but, more importantly, boosts confidence among market participants. Producers prioritize fulfilling export orders in their production schedules, further reducing spot availability in the domestic market. The high-price environment in the international market also provides strong support for domestic prices, allowing Chinese vinyl acetate prices to remain elevated even amid relatively weak domestic demand.