Recently, despite the lack of substantial easing in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the continued scarcity of import vessel schedules leading to declining port inventories in China, the domestic sulfur spot market has generally exhibited a downward trend. Even though market activity has shown some recovery, few traders express strong confidence in the future market direction. As of April 15, the mainstream granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous Thursday, a decrease of 2.38%. This market performance can be attributed to a combination of factors, including high market prices, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation, and the prevailing sentiment among holders to secure profits.

First, the persistently high market prices have been a fundamental driver of the recent decline. Previously, due to tight international supply and a significant domestic supply gap, domestic sulfur spot prices surged to historically high levels. This has further intensified resistance among downstream enterprises, which have long been burdened by high raw material costs, leading them to adopt a rigid demand-based procurement strategy. At the same time, most trading companies find themselves in a dilemma: the high prices have heightened their risk awareness, and even those with a bullish outlook are adopting a rational, wait-and-see approach. This has resulted in subdued inquiry and buying activity. In such an environment, buyers are only willing to purchase at lower prices, gradually eroding market sentiment and naturally exerting downward pressure on prices.

Second, uncertainty in the Middle East continues to disrupt market stability. Although China's dependence on sulfur imports has been declining in recent years, Middle Eastern resources still account for 44% to 61% of the country's annual sulfur imports. Recent negotiations in the Middle East have not fully resolved the geopolitical tensions, leaving shipping risks and supply disruptions as lingering concerns. This uncertainty has led to significant divergence among traders regarding future market trends, making them hesitant to replenish stocks optimistically or sell at low prices to exit the market. Consequently, market circulation has slowed, indirectly contributing to the downward pressure on prices.

Third, the profit-taking sentiment among some holders has directly driven prices lower. The continuous rise in sulfur prices earlier expanded profit margins for holders. However, as prices reached high levels and market momentum slowed, some holders grew concerned about a potential rapid price correction that could erode their profits. This prompted them to adjust their sales strategies and secure profits, leading to a decline in spot market prices.

From a broader market perspective, the domestic sulfur spot market remains in a phase of high volatility and adjustment. Although a short-term decline has occurred, supportive factors have not entirely dissipated. Domestic port inventories are at their lowest levels in nearly two years for the same period, and import vessel schedules are expected to remain limited for some time, providing support from the supply side. Meanwhile, downstream rigid demand, though released in phases, has not completely stalled, offering a floor for sulfur prices.

In summary, the recent high volatility and downward trend in the domestic sulfur spot market have been primarily influenced by the evolving situation in the Middle East, the sales strategies of holders, and sluggish downstream demand. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the stability of Middle Eastern supply, port arrival volumes, and changes in downstream procurement patterns. In the short term, prices are likely to experience upward movements, while the medium-term outlook suggests range-bound consolidation.