Overview
International oil prices fell on average this week, with positive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Cost support was weak, and absolute PX prices declined. With geopolitical relations improving, naphtha prices dropped sharply this week. Combined with the ongoing tightness in PX spot supply, the PX-naphtha spread widened notably, and the PX spread also increased.
Focus points:
① This week's PX output was 521,300 tons, up 0.48% week-on-week.
② Domestic PX average weekly capacity utilization was 62.88%, up 0.3 percentage points week-on-week.
③ Asian PX average weekly capacity utilization was 59.76%, up 0.16 percentage points week-on-week.
I. Geopolitical factors push oil prices up; PX prices follow
This period (July 30, 2026 – August 5, 2026, same below), international oil prices averaged lower, with positive progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Cost support was weak, and absolute PX prices declined. With geopolitical relations improving, naphtha prices fell sharply this week. Combined with the ongoing tightness in PX spot supply, the PX-naphtha spread widened notably, and the PX spread also increased. On Wednesday, August 5, the Asian PX market averaged USD 1080.1/ton CFR China and USD 1058.1/ton FOB Korea, down USD 3.1/ton from last week, representing declines of 0.29% and 0.29%, respectively. Sinopec's July PX settlement price was 8,470 yuan/ton (with a cash payment discount of 10 yuan/ton).
II. Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts; output increases
This week, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 million-ton PX unit and Zhongjin Petrochemical's 1.6 million-ton unit restarted. Weilian Chemical's 2 million-ton unit and Hainan Refining & Chemical's 1.6 million-ton unit were under maintenance. Shenghong's 4 million-ton unit, Fuhaichuang's 1.6 million-ton PX unit, and Yangzi Petrochemical's 890,000-ton unit continued maintenance. Loads at other units remained unchanged. This week's PX output was 521,300 tons, up 0.48% week-on-week. Domestic PX average weekly capacity utilization was 62.88%, up 0.3 percentage points week-on-week.
This period, domestic PTA output was 1.0386 million tons, down 122,000 tons from last week and down 329,700 tons from the same period last year. During the period, units such as Xin Fengming and Yisheng Dahua were shut down for maintenance, leading to a significant contraction in overall domestic output.
III. Low supply; destocking continues
PX output forecast for next week:
Next week, Hainan Refining & Chemical's 1.6 million-ton unit, Fuhaichuang's 1.6 million-ton PX unit, Yangzi Petrochemical's 890,000 tons, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 4 million-ton unit will continue maintenance. Weilian Chemical's 2 million-ton unit and Zhongjin's 1.6 million-ton PX unit are expected to start production. PX weekly output is projected at 577,200 tons.
Table 1 China PX Supply-Demand Balance (10,000 tons)
| Data Type | Item | Current Period | Previous Period | Change | Next Period Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply | PX domestic output | 52.13 | 51.89 | 0.24 | 57.72 |
| PX imports | 14.00 | 12.83 | 1.17 | 14.00 | |
| Total supply | 66.13 | 64.72 | 1.41 | 71.72 | |
| Demand | Domestic consumption | 68.72 | 76.79 | -8.07 | 76.79 |
| Exports | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | |
| Total demand | 68.72 | 76.79 | -8.07 | 76.79 | |
| Balance | Weekly theoretical balance | -2.59 | -12.06 | 9.48 | -5.07 |
Data source: Chempricehub
PTA output forecast for next week:
Next week, units such as Weilian Chemical are scheduled to restart, with a slight increase expected in domestic supply. Weekly output is projected to be around 1.06 million tons.
IV. Weak costs; prices decline
This week's sample comprises 20 enterprises in total, including 15 PX producers, 3 downstream companies, and 2 traders.
The PX market is expected to remain weak next week, with poor cost support. However, tight PX spot supply is expected to limit the downside. PX prices are likely to move narrowly lower, with next week's PX price expected to run around USD 1,060/ton CFR China. On the cost side, international oil prices are expected to have room to fall next week, with WTI likely at USD 69–76/barrel and Brent at USD 73–80/barrel. On the supply side, next week Hainan Refining & Chemical's 1.6 million-ton unit, Fuhaichuang's 1.6 million-ton PX unit, Yangzi Petrochemical's 890,000 tons, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 4 million-ton unit will continue maintenance. Weilian Chemical's 2 million-ton unit and Zhongjin's 1.6 million-ton PX unit are expected to come online, and PX weekly output is projected at 577,200 tons. On the demand side, units such as Weilian Chemical are scheduled to restart next week, with a slight increase expected in domestic supply. Next week's weekly output is projected to be around 1.06 million tons.
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