According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System: During this period, the domestic #1 antimony ingot market experienced a pattern of initial decline followed by an increase, fluctuating within a range. The average price on January 1 was 162,000 yuan per ton, and on January 15, it was 161,000 yuan per ton, representing a decrease of 0.62%. Antimony prices underwent minor adjustments within the range, with a strong reluctance to sell in the market. Coupled with the surge in the broader metal market and changes in export policies, industry expectations for post-holiday market conditions have risen, placing the short-term market in a consolidation phase.

Macro Perspective: Widespread Metal Price Increases and Policy Impact
Recently, in the domestic bulk commodity market, prices for general metals and strategic metal varieties have generally risen, with a strong overall bullish sentiment in the market. As an important strategic mineral, antimony has also attracted investor attention, and market expectations for price increases have correspondingly risen. The support from capital flows and market sentiment has further reinforced the reluctance to sell among holders, becoming a significant factor supporting the fluctuating trend of antimony prices during this period.

Policy Aspect
On January 6, China issued a relevant announcement prohibiting the export of dual-use military items to Japan. Antimony, as a strategic mineral, was included in the control list, explicitly prohibiting the export of related items for use in Japan. Currently, although the announcement emphasizes that civilian trade is unaffected, the practical implementation of usage-oriented reviews may have a potential impact on the export of antimony products to Japan. The transmission effect of this policy on domestic antimony export volumes and prices has not yet materialized, and continued observation of policy implementation details and market feedback is necessary.

Supply Side: Low Willingness of Smelters to Ship, Difficulty in Raw Material Replenishment
During this period, holders generally hold an optimistic outlook for the post-holiday market, resulting in a low overall willingness to ship, with many controlling the pace of shipments to reduce spot circulation. At the same time, the difficulty in replenishing high-quality, low-priced antimony concentrate remains high. Mining in northern mines is restricted due to climatic factors, making low-priced concentrate hard to find. The tight situation on the raw material side further supports smelters' determination to maintain prices. In this context, some holders and traders have taken advantage of the situation to withhold goods, and even actively stockpile, reducing spot supply and waiting for the post-holiday market to take off, further exacerbating the tight supply situation in the spot market.

Demand Side: Traditional Sectors Remain Stable, High-End Sectors Accelerate
In the traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame retardant materials account for about 55%, and glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of China's photovoltaic industry, the main incremental demand for antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic sector.

Recent Price Trends of Antimony Oxide (Unit: yuan/ton)
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