Introduction: During this period, the domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market has shown a slight upward trend overall, with the price center moving higher. From multiple dimensions including supply, demand, sentiment, and external factors, this round of price increases is primarily driven by a contraction in supply together with the delivery of export orders. Domestic demand, however, remains weak, resulting in a structural "cold domestic, hot export" market pattern.

Supply Side: Operating Rates Decline, Spot Supply Continues to Tighten

On the supply side, units that were previously shut down have yet to resume operations. Some producers continue to conduct maintenance or operate at reduced loads, causing the overall industry capacity utilization rate to decline once again. Specifically, several major producers maintained low operating rates during this period. Some individual units temporarily halted production due to routine maintenance or feedstock issues, with unclear restart timelines. As a result, spot supply levels in the market have continued to tighten. Producer salable inventories are generally low, with some manufacturers even resorting to limited sales or holding back supply.

At the same time, the sales pace of producers has shown structural changes. Some manufacturers with export capabilities have prioritized shipments for overseas orders, further diverting volumes that would otherwise be available for domestic circulation. Additionally, based on expectations of further price increases in the future, the trading segment has moderately built inventories. Although each transaction volume is limited, against the backdrop of an overall tight supply, this has further reduced the freely circulating spot goods in the market.

Demand Side: Cautious Domestic Demand, Export and Niche Demand Provide Support

On the demand side, domestic demand remains weak. Major downstream consuming sectors such as polycarbonate (PC), coatings, and electrolytes maintain a cautious purchasing sentiment. Specifically, the PC industry currently has stable operating rates but limited room for growth, with raw material procurement mainly based on immediate needs and lacking willingness for concentrated restocking. The coatings and solvents downstream sectors are affected by the off-season in end-use construction and industrial activities, resulting in limited demand release. In the electrolyte sector, although overall production and sales of new energy vehicles are positive, the consumption pace of DMC remains steady at this stage without showing unexpected incremental increases.

However, export orders have become a key supporting force for this round of market movements. According to market feedback, some major manufacturers have recently received relatively concentrated overseas orders, significantly increasing the volume of goods shipped abroad. Driven by export deliveries, the spot resources available for domestic circulation by these producers have been passively reduced, indirectly exacerbating the supply tightness.

Furthermore, while the stockpiling behavior of the trading segment does not represent actual end-user consumption, it has created additional demand in the short term, further squeezing already tight spot resources. Traders' bullish expectations are mainly based on two judgments: first, the supply side cannot recover quickly in the short term; second, the upcoming traditional peak demand season implies potential downstream restocking space.

Holder Sentiment: Strong Willingness to Support Prices, Profit Margins Relatively Improve

Against the backdrop of persistently tight spot supply, holders' willingness to support prices has strengthened significantly, becoming the direct driver of price increases during this period. Producers generally adopt strategies of controlling supply volumes or raising ex-factory prices, while traders follow by marking up their quotes. As low-priced spot goods are gradually absorbed, the negotiation basis for new transactions is passively pushed higher, leading to multiple rounds of small price increases. It should be noted that despite the continuous price rise, the volume of transactions at higher price levels is limited, with some bargaining between buyers and sellers: sellers insist on not selling at low prices, while buyers remain cautious about procurement costs after consecutive increases. Transactions are mainly small lots and just-in-time purchases. Profit margins have changed unevenly but have shown a certain improvement overall.

Outlook: Likely to Remain Strong in the Short Term; Watch for Plant Operations and Demand Changes

Overall, the core contradiction in the current DMC market lies in the inability to effectively release short-term supply, while export orders and trader stockpiling further intensify spot tightness. Looking ahead to the next one to two weeks, the following factors deserve close attention:

First, plant dynamics remain key to determining the pace of supply recovery. If previously idled or maintenance units can resume production as expected, the supply tightness could marginally ease. Conversely, if restart plans are further delayed, the tight spot supply pattern will persist, leaving room for further price increases.

Second, the sustainability of export orders. Currently, the periodic restocking demand from overseas customers provides strong support to the domestic market. However, whether export orders can maintain high intensity requires monitoring of downstream operating conditions and procurement pace changes abroad.

Third, whether domestic demand can follow through. The current price increase is mainly driven by supply-side factors and some demand from specific channels, while a genuine recovery in downstream consumption has not yet materialized. If prices continue to rise but end-user demand fails to effectively absorb them, the market may face a situation of "prices without transactions," potentially triggering a correction at higher levels.

In summary, the domestic DMC market is expected to maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term, supported by tight supply and holders' price support sentiment, with potential for further slight upward price exploration. However, the medium-to-long-term trajectory still requires substantive improvement in supply-demand fundamentals. Market participants are advised to closely monitor plant restart progress, changes in downstream procurement sentiment, and subsequent export order performance, and to carefully manage operational pace.